Effect of climate change on Thailand’s agriculture: New results

The objectives of this study are to analyze the effect of climate change on farmland values in Thailand and investigate implications for greenhouse warming under future climate change and socio-economic scenarios using the Ricardian approach allowing a variety of the adaptations that farmers make in response to changing economic and climate conditions. The main sources of data are obtained from 2011/2012 national agricultural household socio economics survey conducted by Office of Agricultural Economics, Thailand Meteorology Department, National Economic and Social Development Board, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This study finds that both mean and variation of temperature and precipitation significantly determine farmland values. Overall, the accumulative damage values from 2011/2012 crop year to 2041-2050 period range from $17.499 billion to $83.826 billion. Projected climate change impacts on the irrigated farms are equal to 6.666 billion to $20.406 billion, while the impacts on rainfed farms range from $10.833 billion to $63.420 billion. By downscaling the analysis to the province level, this study finds that irrigated farms in all provinces will be negatively affected by the climate change across all climate scenarios, while results are mixed for the rainfed farm subsample. To mitigate the climate change impacts, Government should provide the support of the collection, development and building the database, knowledge and local wisdom with the cooperation from all sectors for managing the risks arising from climate change and at the same time establish and develop technology in response to climate change. It is also recommended to raise awareness of climate change impacts and convey information, knowledge and technology to development parties at all levels.