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Conflict, Growth, and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau

Author

Listed:
  • Barry, Boubacar-Sid
  • Wodon, Quentin

Abstract

Conflicts and political instability have been serious constraints to growth in Guinea-Bissau. Of special concern was the civil war of 1998, which lasted 11 months and led to substantial loss of life as well as to a massive decrease in GDP per capita. Based on research on the economic cost of conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa conducted by Lopez and Wodon (2005) and using a technique to identify outliers in time series and to correct the series for such outliers, this chapter estimates that GDP per capita today could have been more than 40 percent higher if there had been no conflict in 1998. In turn, one in three persons living in poverty today might not be poor had it not been for the conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry, Boubacar-Sid & Wodon, Quentin, 2007. "Conflict, Growth, and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau," MPRA Paper 11112, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11112
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11112/1/MPRA_paper_11112.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2000. "Can Africa Claim the 21st Century?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22962, December.
    2. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    3. Humberto Lopez & Quentin Wodon, 2005. "The Economic Impact of Armed Conflict in Rwanda," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 14(4), pages 586-602, December.
    4. Gómez, Víctor & Maravall, Agustín & Peña, Daniel, 1997. "Missing observations in ARIMA models: skipping strategy versus additive outlier approach," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10576, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wodon, Quentin, 2007. "Growth and Poverty Reduction in West Africa: A Brief Overview," MPRA Paper 11086, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; conflict; growth; Guinea-Bissau;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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