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Efecto del crecimiento demográfico en la deuda externa. Estudio para países sudamericanos usando un análisis de cointegración
[Effect of population growth on external debt. Study for South American countries using a cointegration analysis]

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  • Cuesta, Lizeth

Abstract

Analyzing the high external debt in the different countries is highly relevant due to its direct effects on the economy and above all because it leads its inhabitants to make different decisions for their future. Therefore, the study aims to evaluate the effect of demographic growth on external debt in South American countries between 1970-2018 using time series techniques to implement measures to counteract this problem, collecting information from the Bank's Development Indicators. World (2019). The results obtained indicate the existence of a short and long-term relationship between the series, as well as unidirectional and bidirectional causality in some cases between the variables analyzed. Those responsible for implementing policies should focus on the efficient use of these resources through increased public spending on health, education and investment in fixed capital through budget reforms in order to promote the active participation of the inhabitants of their country and thereby generate greater economic growth and fully comply with its financial obligations

Suggested Citation

  • Cuesta, Lizeth, 2020. "Efecto del crecimiento demográfico en la deuda externa. Estudio para países sudamericanos usando un análisis de cointegración [Effect of population growth on external debt. Study for South American," MPRA Paper 111041, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Apr 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111041
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    External debt; Demography; Time series; South Americ;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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