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Panel Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model

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Author Info
Basher, Syed A.
Westerlund, Joakim

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Abstract

This paper re-examines the validity of the monetary exchange rate model during the post-Bretton Woods era for 18 OECD countries. Our analysis simultaneously considers the presence of both cross-sectional dependence and multiple structural breaks, which have not received much attention in previous studies of the monetary model. The empirical results indicate that the monetary model emerges only when the presence of structural breaks and cross-country dependence has been taken into account. Evidence is also provided suggesting that the breaks in the monetary model can be derived from the underlying purchasing power parity relation.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10453.

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Date of creation: 12 Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10453

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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  1. Nicholas Sarantis, 1994. "The monetary exchange rate model in the long run: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 698-711, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Taylor, Alan M & Taylor, Mark P, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 4495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2005:12, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  4. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2004. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 867-895, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hegwood, Natalie D & Papell, David H, 1998. "Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-89, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluis Carrión-i-Silvestre, 2008. "Price level convergence, purchasing power parity and multiple structural breaks: An application to US cities," Working Papers XREAP2008-8, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2006. "Additional Evidence of Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Restricted Structural Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1329-1349, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Harris, David & Leybourne, Stephen & McCabe, Brendan, 2005. "Panel Stationarity Tests for Purchasing Power Parity With Cross-Sectional Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 395-409, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  13. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton, David L., 2007. "A panel bootstrap cointegration test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 185-190, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Papell, David H., 2002. "The great appreciation, the great depreciation, and the purchasing power parity hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 51-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Groen, Jan J. J., 2000. "The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Groen, Jan J J, 2002. " Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 361-80, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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