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The impact of land use effects in infrastructure appraisal

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  • Eliasson, Jonas
  • Savemark, Christian
  • Franklin, Joel

Abstract

When benefits of proposed infrastructure investments are forecasted, residential location is usually treated as fixed, since very few operational transport models are able to forecast residential relocation. It has been argued that this may constitute a source of serious error or bias when evaluating and comparing the benefits of proposed infrastructure investments. We use a stylized simulation model of a metropolitan region to compare calculated benefits for a large number of infrastructure investments with and without taking changes in residential location into account. In particular, we explore the changes in project selection when assembling an optimal project portfolio under a budget constraint. The simulation model includes endogenous land prices and demand for residential land, heterogeneous preferences and wage offers across residents, and spillover mechanisms which affect wage rates in zones. The model is calibrated to generate realistic travel patterns and demand elasticities. Our results indicate that ignoring residential relocation has a small but appreciable effect on the selected project portfolio, but only a very small effect on achieved total benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliasson, Jonas & Savemark, Christian & Franklin, Joel, 2020. "The impact of land use effects in infrastructure appraisal," MPRA Paper 103085, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103085
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lennox, James, 2023. "Spatial economic dynamics in transport project appraisal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Le, Henry & Gurry, Finn & Lennox, James, 2023. "An application of land use, transport, and economy interaction model," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Serban Raicu & Dorinela Costescu & Mihaela Popa & Vasile Dragu, 2021. "Dynamic Intercorrelations between Transport/Traffic Infrastructures and Territorial Systems: From Economic Growth to Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-16, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cost-benefit analysis; land use; wider impacts; land use/transport interaction models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

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