IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/101637.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does development finance pose an additional risk to monetary policy?

Author

Listed:
  • Haruna, Issahaku
  • Harvey, Simon K.
  • Abor, Joshua Y.

Abstract

This study investigates whether remittances entail extra risk for macroeconomic policy management and examines the role (if any) that the financial system can play in the interaction between remittances and monetary policy. Employing panel data for 106 developing countries from 1970 to 2013, the results from our panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model reveal that remittance volatility reduces macroeconomic risk in developing countries while simultaneously stimulating a reduction in domestic interest rates. This finding remains robust to alternative specifications of remittance volatility and monetary policy risk and to variations in the degree of financial development. The key lesson from this study is that developing countries can leverage the positive impact of remittances in reducing macroeconomic instability by implementing policies that induce remittances.

Suggested Citation

  • Haruna, Issahaku & Harvey, Simon K. & Abor, Joshua Y., 2016. "Does development finance pose an additional risk to monetary policy?," MPRA Paper 101637, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jul 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101637
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/101637/1/MPRA_paper_101637.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    2. Adams, Richard Jr. & Page, John, 2005. "Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1645-1669, October.
    3. Connel Fullenkamp & Mr. Thomas F. Cosimano & Michael T. Gapen & Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Peter J Montiel & Mr. Adolfo Barajas, 2008. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances," IMF Occasional Papers 2008/001, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Leaning into the Wind: A Structural VAR Investigation of UK Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(5), pages 597-621, October.
    5. Dean Yang, 2008. "International Migration, Remittances and Household Investment: Evidence from Philippine Migrants’ Exchange Rate Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 591-630, April.
    6. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2013. "Panel Vector Autoregressive Models: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 9380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Grossmann, Axel & Love, Inessa & Orlov, Alexei G., 2014. "The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: A panel VAR approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-27.
    8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    9. Giuliano, Paola & Ruiz-Arranz, Marta, 2009. "Remittances, financial development, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 144-152, September.
    10. Christian Nsiah & Bichaka Fayissa, 2013. "Remittances and economic growth in Africa, Asia, and Latin American-Caribbean countries: a panel unit root and panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(3), pages 424-441, July.
    11. Matteo Bugamelli & Francesco Paternò, 2011. "Output Growth Volatility and Remittances," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(311), pages 480-500, July.
    12. Termos, Ali & Naufal, George & Genc, Ismail, 2013. "Remittance outflows and inflation: The case of the GCC countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 45-47.
    13. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Susan Pozo, 2006. "Migration, Remittances, and Male and Female Employment Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 222-226, May.
    14. El-Sakka, M. I. T. & McNabb, Robert, 1999. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Emigrant Remittances," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1493-1502, August.
    15. Tai-kuang Ho & Kuo-chun Yeh, 2010. "Measuring Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Managed Exchange Rates: The Case of Taiwan," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(3), pages 811-826, January.
    16. Singer, David Andrew, 2010. "Migrant Remittances and Exchange Rate Regimes in the Developing World," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 307-323, May.
    17. Richard H. Adams, 2006. "International Remittances and the Household: Analysis and Review of Global Evidence," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 15(2), pages 396-425, December.
    18. Acosta, Pablo & Calderon, Cesar & Fajnzylber, Pablo & Lopez, Humberto, 2008. "What is the Impact of International Remittances on Poverty and Inequality in Latin America?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 89-114, January.
    19. Mandelman, Federico S., 2013. "Monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 128-147.
    20. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    21. Chami Ralph & Hakura Dalia S. & Montiel Peter J., 2012. "Do Worker Remittances Reduce Output Volatility in Developing Countries?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, June.
    22. Diego E. Vacaflores, 2012. "Remittances, Monetary Policy, and Partial Sterilization," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(2), pages 367-387, October.
    23. Bichaka Fayissa & Christian Nsiah, 2010. "The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth and Development in Africa," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 55(2), pages 92-103, November.
    24. Gupta, Sanjeev & Pattillo, Catherine A. & Wagh, Smita, 2009. "Effect of Remittances on Poverty and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-115, January.
    25. Deodat E. Adenutsi, 2014. "macroeconomic determinants of workers’ remittances and compensation of employees in sub-saharan Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 48(1), pages 337-360, January-M.
    26. Agbloyor, Elikplimi Komla & Abor, Joshua Yindenaba & Adjasi, Charles Komla Delali & Yawson, Alfred, 2014. "Private capital flows and economic growth in Africa: The role of domestic financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 137-152.
    27. Richard P. C. Brown & Fabrizio Carmignani & Ghada Fayad, 2013. "Migrants’ Remittances and Financial Development: Macro- and Micro-Level Evidence of a Perverse Relationship," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 636-660, May.
    28. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-1247, December.
    29. Mansuri, Ghazala, 2006. "Migration, school attainment, and child labor : evidence from rural Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3945, The World Bank.
    30. Isabel Ruiz & Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2010. "Monetary policy and international remittances," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 43(2), pages 173-186, January-M.
    31. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lu, Biao, 2001. "Consistent model and moment selection procedures for GMM estimation with application to dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 123-164, March.
    32. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    33. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
    34. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiova, 2013. "Remittances and their Macroeconomic Impact," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, October.
    35. Mandelman, Federico S. & Zlate, Andrei, 2012. "Immigration, remittances and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 196-213.
    36. Adams Jr., Richard H. & Cuecuecha, Alfredo, 2010. "Remittances, Household Expenditure and Investment in Guatemala," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 1626-1641, November.
    37. Acosta, Pablo & Fajnzylber, Pablo & Lopez, J. Humberto, 2007. "The impact of remittances on poverty and human capital : evidence from Latin American household surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4247, The World Bank.
    38. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    39. McCormick, Barry & Wahba, Jackline, 2000. "Overseas Employment and Remittances to a Dual Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 509-534, April.
    40. Senbeta, Sisay, 2011. "How applicable are the new keynesian DSGE models to a typical low-income economy?," MPRA Paper 30931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Gyan Pradhan & Mukti Upadhyay & Kamal Upadhyaya, 2008. "Remittances and economic growth in developing countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 497-506.
    42. Miguel Ramirez, 2013. "Do Financial and Institutional Variables Enhance the Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean? A Panel Cointegration Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 273-288, August.
    43. Ericsson, Johan & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2004. "The productivity-bias hypothesis and the PPP theorem: new evidence from panel vector autoregressive models," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 121-138, April.
    44. Carletto, Calogero & Covarrubias, Katia & Maluccio, John A., 2011. "Migration and child growth in rural Guatemala," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 16-27, February.
    45. Linyue Li & Nan Zhang & Thomas D. Willett, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic and financial market interdependence: a critical survey," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(2), pages 128-145, May.
    46. Adams, Richard H. Jr., 2004. "Remittances and poverty in Guatemala," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3418, The World Bank.
    47. Roland Craigwell & Mahalia Jackman & Winston Moore, 2010. "Economic volatility and remittances," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(1), pages 25-42, April.
    48. Evans Stephen Osabuohien & Uchenna Rapuluchukwu Efobi, 2013. "Africa's Money in Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(2), pages 292-306, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ergin Akalpler & Simbarashe Hove, 2022. "Monetary policy and capital flow implications on economic growth in BRICS countries," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 253-274, February.
    2. Anarfo, Ebenezer Bugri & Abor, Joshua Yindenaba & osei, Kofi Achampong, 2020. "Financial regulation and financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does financial stability play a moderating role?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Dominic Atogumsekiya Anarigide & Haruna Issahaku & Stanley Kojo Dary, 2023. "Drivers of financial innovation in sub-Saharan Africa," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(9), pages 1-21, September.
    4. Ustarz, Yazidu & Haruna, Issahaku, 2017. "International Migrant Remittance and Productivity Growth in Ghana," MPRA Paper 101579, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jun 2017.
    5. Olumuyiwa Tolulope Apanisile, 2021. "Remittances, financial development and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Nigeria: a DSGE approach (1986–2018)," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 91-112, June.
    6. Folorunsho M. Ajide & James T. Dada, 2023. "Poverty, entrepreneurship, and economic growth in Africa," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 199-226, June.
    7. Issahaku, Haruna & Abor, Joshua Yindenaba & Harvey, Simon Kwadzogah, 2017. "Remittances, banks and stock markets: Panel evidence from developing countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1413-1427.
    8. Manuel Ennes Ferreira & João Dias & Jelson Serafim, 2022. "Stock Market and Economic Growth: Evidence from Africa," Working Papers REM 2022/0228, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barajas, Adolfo & Chami, Ralph & Ebeke, Christian & Oeking, Anne, 2018. "What's different about monetary policy transmission in remittance-dependent countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 272-288.
    2. Jounghyeon Kim, 2019. "The Impact of Remittances on Exchange Rate and Money Supply: Does “Openness” Matter in Developing Countries?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(15), pages 3682-3707, December.
    3. Gloria Clarissa O. Dzeha, 2016. "The decipher, theory or empirics: a review of remittance studies," African Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 113-134.
    4. Ma, Yechi & Chen, Zhiguo & Shinwari, Riazullah & Khan, Zeeshan, 2021. "Financialization, globalization, and Dutch disease: Is Dutch disease exist for resources rich countries?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Justin Sunny & Jajati K. Parida & Mohammed Azurudeen, 2020. "Remittances, Investment and New Emigration Trends in Kerala," Review of Development and Change, , vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, June.
    6. Haruna, Issahaku, 2019. "Harnessing international remittances for financial development: The role of monetary policy," MPRA Paper 97004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jul 2019.
    7. Christian Ambrosius, 2016. "Remittances and Financial Access: Is There Really a Link and for Whom? Evidence from Mexican Household Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(7), pages 964-982, July.
    8. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2012. "Worker remittances, migration, accumulation and growth in poor developing countries: Survey and analysis of direct and indirect effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 103-118.
    9. Christian EBEKE, 2010. "Transferts des migrants, ouverture sur l'extérieur et dépenses publiques dans les pays en développement," Working Papers 201011, CERDI.
    10. Bugamelli, Matteo & Paternò, Francesco, 2009. "Do Workers' Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1821-1838, December.
    11. Oluwatosin Adeniyi & Kazeem Ajide & Ibrahim D. Raheem, 2019. "Remittances and output growth volatility in developing countries: Does financial development dampen or magnify the effects?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 865-882, March.
    12. Abida Zouheir & Imen Mohamed Sghaier, 2014. "Remittances, Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of North African Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(51), pages 137-170, March.
    13. Ebeke, Christian Hubert, 2012. "The power of remittances on the international prevalence of child labor," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 452-462.
    14. Afi Etonam Adetou & Komlan Fiodendji, 2019. "Finance, Institutions, Remittances and Economic growth: New Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 1-4.
    15. Oluwasheyi S. Oladipo, 2020. "Migrant Workers' Remittances And Economic Growth: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(4), pages 75-88, October-D.
    16. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Remittances Inflows and Trade Policy," Remittances Review, Remittances Review, vol. 4(2), pages 117-142, October.
    17. Chrysost Bangake & Jude Eggoh, 2020. "Financial Development Thresholds and the Remittances-Growth Nexus," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(2), pages 425-445, June.
    18. Manuel Ennes Ferreira & João Dias & Jelson Serafim, 2022. "Stock Market and Economic Growth: Evidence from Africa," Working Papers REM 2022/0228, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    19. Abdilahi Ali & Baris Alpaslan, 2017. "Is There an Investment Motive Behind Remittances? Evidence From Panel Cointegration," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(1), pages 63-82, January-M.
    20. Anzoategui, Diego & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Martínez Pería, María Soledad, 2014. "Remittances and Financial Inclusion: Evidence from El Salvador," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 338-349.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Does development finance pose an additional risk to monetary policy?;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101637. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.