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Macroeconomic Volatility Trade-off and Monetary Policy Regime in the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Alvaro Aguiar

    (CEMPRE, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto)

  • Manuel M. F. Martins

    (CEMPRE, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto)

Abstract

This research uncovers a well-defined monetary policy regime starting in 1986 in the aggregate Euro Area. Both alternative solution-estimation methods employed - optimal control cum GMM, and dynamic programming cum FIML - identify a regime of strict inflation targeting with interest rate smoothing. The unemployment gap, properly estimated as quasi real-time information, is a relevant element in the information set of the monetary authority, despite not being included in its preferences. The emergence of the regime relates to the improvement of the volatility trade-off between inflation and unemployment gap since the mid-80s. Additional improving factors have been milder supply shocks and better ability of policymakers to set the interest rate closer to optimum.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins, 2003. "Macroeconomic Volatility Trade-off and Monetary Policy Regime in the Euro Area," FEP Working Papers 123, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    • Handle: RePEc:por:fepwps:123
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    File URL: http://www.fep.up.pt/investigacao/workingpapers/wp123.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yunus Aksoy & Paul De Grauwe & Hans Dewachter, 2014. "Do Asymmetries Matter for European Monetary Policy?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 13, pages 321-353, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    3. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    4. Mojon, Benoît & Agresti, Anna Maria, 2001. "Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle," Working Paper Series 95, European Central Bank.
    5. Kashyap, Anil K. & Mojon, Benoît & Terlizzese, Daniele & Backé, Peter, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 114, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cristina Barbot, 2004. "Low cost carriers, secondary airports and State aid: an economic assessment of the Charleroi affair," FEP Working Papers 159, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    2. Filipe J. Sousa & Luis M. de Castro, 2004. "The strategic relevance of business relationships: a preliminary assessment," FEP Working Papers 163, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    3. Rosa Forte, 2004. "The relationship between foreign direct investment and international trade. Substitution or complementarity? A survey," FEP Working Papers 140, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    4. Pedro Cosme Costa Vieira, 2005. "Multi Product Market Equilibrium with Sequential Search," FEP Working Papers 166, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    5. Rui Henrique Alves, 2004. "Europe: Looking for a New Model," FEP Working Papers 154, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy Regime; Euro Area; Optimal Control; Dynamic Programming; GMM; FIML.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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