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A new portfolio formation approach to mispricing of marketing performance indicators with an application to customer satisfaction

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  • David R. Bell
  • Olivier Ledoit
  • Michael Wolf

Abstract

The mispricing of marketing performance indicators (such as brand equity, churn, and customer satisfaction) is an important element of arguments in favor of the financial value of marketing investments. Evidence for mispricing can be assessed by examining whether or not portfolios composed of firms that load highly on marketing performance indicators deliver excess returns. Unfortunately, extant portfolio formation methods that require the use of a risk model are open to the criticism of time-varying risk factor loadings due to the changing composition of the portfolio over time. This is a serious critique, as the direction of the induced bias is unknown. As an alternative, we propose a new method and construct portfolios that are neutral with respect to the desired risk factors a priori. Consequently, no risk model is needed when analyzing the observed returns of our portfolios. We apply our method to a frequently studied marketing performance indicator, customer satisfaction. Using various ways of measuring customer satisfaction, we do not find any convincing evidence that portfolios that load on high customer satisfaction lead to abnormal returns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics - University of Zurich in its series ECON - Working Papers with number 079.

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Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision: Dec 2013
Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:079

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Keywords: Customer satisfaction; financial performance; long-short portfolio; mispricing;

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  1. Romano, Joseph P. & Shaikh, Azeem M. & Wolf, Michael, 2008. "Formalized Data Snooping Based On Generalized Error Rates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 404-447, April.
  2. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2003. "The Conditional CAPM Does Not Explain Asset-pricing Anomalies," Working papers 4427-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  4. Robert Jacobson & Natalie Mizik, 2009. "—Customer Satisfaction-Based Mispricing: Issues and Misconceptions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(5), pages 836-845, 09-10.
  5. Christopher Ittner & David Larcker & Daniel Taylor, 2009. "—The Stock Market's Pricing of Customer Satisfaction," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(5), pages 826-835, 09-10.
  6. Olivier Ledoit & Michael Wolf, 2001. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portofolio selection," Economics Working Papers 586, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  7. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  8. Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2003. "Stepwise multiple testing as formalized data snooping," Economics Working Papers 712, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  10. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
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