IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pie/dsedps/2018-235.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Determinants of Resilience in European Regions During the Great Recession: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Lisa Gianmoena
  • Vicente Rios

Abstract

This study analyzes the determinants of resilience outcomes of European regions during the 2008-2013 crisis. Bayesian Model Averaging techniques are used in order to examine the empirical relevance of a large number of institutional, innovation, socio-demographic and labor market factors that could affect resilience patterns. The findings of this study suggest that regional disparities in resilience patterns are mainly determined by factors such as regional quality of government, the level of innovation, the functional specialization and by national level labor market institutions. The findings are robust to (i) the definition of the dependent variable and the (ii) employment of different g-priors and priors on model size.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa Gianmoena & Vicente Rios, 2018. "The Determinants of Resilience in European Regions During the Great Recession: a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Discussion Papers 2018/235, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2018/235
    Note: ISSN 2039-1854
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ec.unipi.it/documents/Ricerca/papers/2018-235.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicola Cortinovis & Riccardo Crescenzi & Frank van Oort, 2020. "Multinational enterprises, industrial relatedness and employment in European regions [Innovation: mapping the winds of creative destruction]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 1165-1205.
    2. Ciccone, Antonio, 2002. "Agglomeration effects in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 213-227, February.
    3. Andr�s Rodr�guez-Pose & Enrique Garcilazo, 2015. "Quality of Government and the Returns of Investment: Examining the Impact of Cohesion Expenditure in European Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1274-1290, August.
    4. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Violeta Vulovic, 2017. "How well do subnational borrowing regulations work?," Chapters, in: Naoyuki Yoshino & Peter J. Morgan (ed.), Central and Local Government Relations in Asia, chapter 5, pages 161-220, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Paolo Rizzi & Paola Graziano & Antonio Dallara, 2018. "A capacity approach to territorial resilience: the case of European regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(2), pages 285-328, March.
    6. Ben Gardiner & Ron Martin & Peter Sunley & Peter Tyler, 2013. "Spatially unbalanced growth in the British economy," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 889-928, November.
    7. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    8. Irene Brunetti & Davide Fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2017. "Volatility in European regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(4), pages 697-720, November.
    9. Ron Boschma, 2015. "Towards an Evolutionary Perspective on Regional Resilience," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 733-751, May.
    10. Nickell, Stephen & Bell, Brian, 1996. "Changes in the Distribution of Wages and Unemployment in OECD Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 302-308, May.
    11. Paolo Di Caro, 2017. "Testing and explaining economic resilience with an application to Italian regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 93-113, March.
    12. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    13. Roberto Ezcurra & Pedro Pascual & Manuel Rapun, 2006. "Regional Specialization in the European Union," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(6), pages 601-616.
    14. Etienne Lehmann & Claudio Lucifora & Simone Moriconi & Bruno Van der Linden, 2016. "Beyond the labour income tax wedge: the unemployment-reducing effect of tax progressivity," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(3), pages 454-489, June.
    15. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    16. Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu, 2016. "After crisis scenarios for Europe: alternative evolutions of structural adjustments," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(1), pages 81-101.
    17. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
    18. Juan R. Cuadrado-Roura & Andrés Maroto, 2016. "Unbalanced regional resilience to the economic crisis in Spain: a tale of specialisation and productivity," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(1), pages 153-178.
    19. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Christian H Ebeke, 2016. "The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity," IMF Working Papers 2016/238, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley & Ben Gardiner & Peter Tyler, 2016. "How Regions React to Recessions: Resilience and the Role of Economic Structure," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 561-585, April.
    21. Roberta Capello & Andrea Caragliu & Ugo Fratesi, 2015. "Spatial heterogeneity in the costs of the economic crisis in Europe: are cities sources of regional resilience?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 951-972.
    22. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Ron P. Smith & Tobias Grasl, 2019. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 193-222, January.
    23. Nicola Cortinovis & Riccardo Crescenzi & Frank van Oort, 0. "Multinational enterprises, industrial relatedness and employment in European regions," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 1165-1205.
    24. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Charles van Marrewijk, 2015. "Regional resilience across Europe: on urbanisation and the initial impact of the Great Recession," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(2), pages 225-240.
    25. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Marco Di Cataldo, 2015. "Quality of government and innovative performance in the regions of Europe," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 673-706.
    26. Elias Giannakis & Adriana Bruggeman, 2017. "Determinants of regional resilience to economic crisis: a European perspective," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(8), pages 1394-1415, August.
    27. Vicente Rios, 2017. "What drives unemployment disparities in European regions? A dynamic spatial panel approach," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(11), pages 1599-1611, November.
    28. Roberto Ezcurra, 2011. "Unemployment Volatility and Regional Specialization in the European Union," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1121-1137.
    29. Jean Dub� & Mario Pol�Se, 2016. "Resilience Revisited: Assessing the Impact of the 2007-09 Recession on 83 Canadian Regions with Accompanying Thoughts on an Elusive Concept," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 615-628, April.
    30. Nicholas Charron & Lewis Dijkstra & Victor Lapuente, 2015. "Erratum to: Mapping the Regional Divide in Europe: A Measure for Assessing Quality of Government in 206 European Regions," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 124(3), pages 1059-1059, December.
    31. Davide Fiaschi & Lisa Gianmoena & Angela Parenti, 2017. "Asymmetric macroeconomic volatility in European regions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2-3), pages 251-278, July.
    32. Dario Diodato & Anet B. R. Weterings, 2015. "The resilience of regional labour markets to economic shocks: Exploring the role of interactions among firms and workers," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 723-742.
    33. Riccardo Crescenzi & Marco Di Cataldo & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2016. "Government Quality And The Economic Returns Of Transport Infrastructure Investment In European Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 555-582, September.
    34. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Santiago Lago-Peñas & Agnese Sacchi, 2017. "The Impact Of Fiscal Decentralization: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1095-1129, September.
    35. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley, 2015. "On the notion of regional economic resilience: conceptualization and explanation," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 1-42.
    36. Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2007. "Regional Business Cycles and the Emergence of Sheltered Economies in the Southern Periphery of Europe," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 621-648, December.
    37. Yannis Psycharis & Dimitris Kallioras & Panagiotis Pantazis, 2014. "Economic crisis and regional resilience: detecting the ‘geographical footprint’ of economic crisis in Greece," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 121-141, June.
    38. Bernard Trendle, 2006. "Regional economic instability: the role of industrial diversification and spatial spillovers," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 40(4), pages 767-778, December.
    39. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2015. "Model Averaging In Economics: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 46-75, February.
    40. Roberto Cellini & Gianpiero Torrisi, 2014. "Regional Resilience in Italy: A Very Long-Run Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(11), pages 1779-1796, November.
    41. Susan Christopherson & Gordon L. Clark & John Whiteman, 2015. "Introduction: the Euro crisis and the future of Europe," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 843-853.
    42. Sondermann, David, 2018. "Towards more resilient economies: The role of well-functioning economic structures," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 97-117.
    43. Nicolaas Groenewold, 1997. "Does Migration Equalise Regional Unemployment Rates? Evidence From Australia," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(1), pages 1-20, January.
    44. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2014. "The Growth of Cities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 5, pages 781-853, Elsevier.
    45. Philippe Aghion, 2005. "Growth and Institutions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 3-18, March.
    46. Goerner, Sally J. & Lietaer, Bernard & Ulanowicz, Robert E., 2009. "Quantifying economic sustainability: Implications for free-enterprise theory, policy and practice," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 76-81, November.
    47. Ron Martin, 2012. "Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-32, January.
    48. Vicente Rios & Pedro Pascual Arzoz & BelÉn iraizoz Apezteguia, 2016. "Development Differentials and Interaction Effects in the European Regions: A Study Based on the Regional Lisbon Index," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 107(3), pages 347-364, July.
    49. Raffaele Lagravinese, 2015. "Economic crisis and rising gaps North–South: evidence from the Italian regions," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(2), pages 331-342.
    50. Marco Modica & Aura Reggiani, 2015. "Spatial Economic Resilience: Overview and Perspectives," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 211-233, June.
    51. Lars Calmfors, 1993. "Centralisation of Wage Bargaining and Macroeconomic Performance: A Survey," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 131, OECD Publishing.
    52. Richard Disney, 1996. "Can We Afford to Grow Older?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026204157x, December.
    53. Raffaele Paci & Emanuela Marrocu, 2013. "Knowledge Assets and Regional Performance," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 228-257, June.
    54. Lino Briguglio & Gordon Cordina & Nadia Farrugia & Stephanie Vella, 2009. "Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 229-247.
    55. Di Tella, Rafael & MacCulloch, Robert, 2005. "The consequences of labor market flexibility: Panel evidence based on survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1225-1259, July.
    56. Neyapti, Bilin, 2010. "Fiscal decentralization and deficits: International evidence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 155-166, June.
    57. Ugo Fratesi & Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 2016. "The crisis and regional employment in Europe: what role for sheltered economies?," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(1), pages 33-57.
    58. J. Paul Elhorst, 2003. "The Mystery of Regional Unemployment Differentials: Theoretical and Empirical Explanations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 709-748, December.
    59. Nicholas Charron & Lewis Dijkstra & Victor Lapuente, 2015. "Mapping the Regional Divide in Europe: A Measure for Assessing Quality of Government in 206 European Regions," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 122(2), pages 315-346, June.
    60. Jason Sorens, 2011. "The Institutions of Fiscal Federalism," Publius: The Journal of Federalism, CSF Associates Inc., vol. 41(2), pages 207-231, Spring.
    61. Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2012. "Recessionary Shocks And Regional Employment: Evidence On The Resilience Of U.K. Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 109-133, February.
    62. Curtis J. Simon, 1988. "Frictional Unemployment and the Role of Industrial Diversity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(4), pages 715-728.
    63. Fingleton, Bernard & Palombi, Silvia, 2013. "Spatial panel data estimation, counterfactual predictions, and local economic resilience among British towns in the Victorian era," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 649-660.
    64. Roberta Capello & Camilla Lenzi, 2014. "Spatial Heterogeneity In Knowledge, Innovation, And Economic Growth Nexus: Conceptual Reflections And Empirical Evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 186-214, March.
    65. Roberta Capello & Camilla Lenzi, 2013. "Territorial Patterns of Innovation and Economic Growth in European Regions," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 195-227, June.
    66. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp & Iulia Traistaru, 2005. "Is Sectoral Diversification a Solution to Unemployment? Evidence from EU Regions#," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 591-610, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vinko Muštra & Blanka Šimundić & Zvonimir Kuliš, 2020. "Does innovation matter for regional labour resilience? The case of EU regions," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 955-970, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sébastien BOURDIN, 2018. "Géographie de la résilience des régions européennes face à la crise (2008-2013)," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 48, pages 53-70.
    2. Rios, Vicente & Gianmoena, Lisa, 2020. "The link between quality of government and regional resilience in Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1064-1084.
    3. Vinko Muštra & Blanka Šimundić & Zvonimir Kuliš, 2020. "Does innovation matter for regional labour resilience? The case of EU regions," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 955-970, October.
    4. Florin Oprea & Mihaela Onofrei & Dan Lupu & Georgeta Vintila & Gigel Paraschiv, 2020. "The Determinants of Economic Resilience. The Case of Eastern European Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-11, May.
    5. Giulio Cainelli & Roberto Ganau & Marco Modica, 2019. "Industrial relatedness and regional resilience in the European Union," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(2), pages 755-778, April.
    6. Pontarollo, Nicola & Serpieri, Carolina, 2020. "A composite policy tool to measure territorial resilience capacity," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Pedro Sánchez-Zamora & Rosa Gallardo-Cobos, 2019. "Diversity, Disparity and Territorial Resilience in the Context of the Economic Crisis: An Analysis of Rural Areas in Southern Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, March.
    8. Meiyue Li & Xiaowen Wang, 2022. "How Regions React to Economic Crisis: Regional Economic Resilience in a Chinese Perspective," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, December.
    9. Hasan Engin Duran & Ugo Fratesi, 2023. "Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 219-252, April.
    10. Giuseppe Terzo, 2021. "Social capital, social economy and economic resilience of Italian provinces," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(5), pages 1113-1135, October.
    11. Eleonora Cutrini, 2023. "Postcrisis recovery in the regions of Europe: Does institutional quality matter?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 5-29, January.
    12. Ugo Fratesi & Giovanni Perucca, 2018. "Territorial capital and the resilience of European regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(2), pages 241-264, March.
    13. Giulio Cainelli & Roberto Ganau & Marco Modica, 2019. "Does related variety affect regional resilience? New evidence from Italy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(3), pages 657-680, June.
    14. Linus Holtermann & Christian Hundt, 2018. "Hierarchically structured determinants and phase related patterns of economic resilience. An empirical case study for European regions," Working Papers on Innovation and Space 2018-02, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
    15. Adelheid Holl, 2018. "Local employment growth patterns and the Great Recession: The case of Spain," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 837-863, September.
    16. Jesús Peiró‐Palomino & Andrés J. Picazo‐Tadeo & Vicente Rios, 2020. "Well‐being in European regions: Does government quality matter?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(3), pages 555-582, June.
    17. Giulia Urso & Marco Modica & Alessandra Faggian, 2019. "Resilience and Sectoral Composition Change of Italian Inner Areas in Response to the Great Recession," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-15, May.
    18. Jacopo Canello & Francesco Vidoli, 2020. "Investigating space‐time patterns of regional industrial resilience through a micro‐level approach: An application to the Italian wine industry," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 653-676, September.
    19. Paolo Rizzi & Paola Graziano & Antonio Dallara, 2018. "A capacity approach to territorial resilience: the case of European regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(2), pages 285-328, March.
    20. Elias Giannakis & Adriana Bruggeman, 2017. "Economic crisis and regional resilience: Evidence from Greece," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(3), pages 451-476, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2018/235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dspisit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.