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Realized Beta: Persistence and Predictability

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  • Torben G. Andersen

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Northwestern University)

  • Tim Bollerslev

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Duke University)

  • Francis X. Diebold

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Jin Wu

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

A large literature over several decades reveals both extensive concern with the question of time-varying betas and an emerging consensus that betas are in fact time-varying, leading to the prominence of the conditional CAPM. Set against that background, we assess the dynamics in realized betas, vis-à-vis the dynamics in the underlying realized market variance and individual equity covariances with the market. Working in the recently-popularized framework of realized volatility, we are led to a framework of nonlinear fractional cointegration: although realized variances and covariances are very highly persistent and well approximated as fractionally-integrated, realized betas, which are simple nonlinear functions of those realized variances and covariances, are less persistent and arguably best modeled as stationary I(0) processes. We conclude by drawing implications for asset pricing and portfolio management.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 04-018.

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Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: 03 Jan 2003
Date of revision: 01 Mar 2004
Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:04-018

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Keywords: Quadratic variation and covariation; realized volatility; asset pricing; CAPM; equity betas; long memory; nonlinear fractional cointegration; continuous-time methods;

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  1. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
  2. Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2002. "Rolling-Sample Volatility Estimators: Some New Theoretical, Simulation, and Empirical Results," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 363-76, July.
  3. Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2004. "Realized Variance and IID Market Microstructure Noise," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 526, Econometric Society.
  4. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
  5. Bollerslev, Tim & Zhang, Benjamin Y. B., 2003. "Measuring and modeling systematic risk in factor pricing models using high-frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 533-558, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Haselmann, Rainer & Herwartz, Helmut, 2008. "Portfolio performance and the Euro: Prospects for new potential EMU members," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 314-330, March.
  2. José L. B. Fernandes & Augusto Hasman & Juan Ignacio Peña, 2006. "Risk Premium: Insights Over The Threshold," Working Papers Series 126, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Helmut Herwartz, 2006. "Econometric analysis of high frequency data," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 89-104, March.
  4. Berger, David & Chaboud, Alain & Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2009. "What drives volatility persistence in the foreign exchange market?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 192-213, November.
  5. Jonas Dovern, 2006. "Predicting GDP Components. Do Leading Indicators Increase Predictability?," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 436, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Shapiro, A.F. & Terraza, M., 2014. "CAPM with fuzzy returns and hypothesis testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 40-57.
  7. Richard M. Levich & Valerio Poti, 2008. "Predictability and 'Good Deals' in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 14597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Gregory H. Bauer & Keith Vorkink, 2007. "Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 07-20, Bank of Canada.

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