IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/eme/aecozz/s0731-9053(05)20020-8.html

Realized Beta: Persistence and Predictability

In: Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • Torben G. Andersen
  • Tim Bollerslev
  • Francis X. Diebold
  • Ginger Wu

Abstract

A large literature over several decades reveals both extensive concern with the question of time-varying betas and an emerging consensus that betas are in fact time-varying, leading to the prominence of the conditional CAPM. Set against that background, we assess the dynamics in realized betas, vis-à-vis the dynamics in the underlying realized market variance and individual equity covariances with the market. Working in the recently popularized framework of realized volatility, we are led to a framework of nonlinear fractional cointegration: although realized variances and covariances are very highly persistent and well approximated as fractionally integrated, realized betas, which are simple nonlinear functions of those realized variances and covariances, are less persistent and arguably best modeled as stationary I(0) processes. We conclude by drawing implications for asset pricing and portfolio management.

Suggested Citation

  • Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Ginger Wu, 2006. "Realized Beta: Persistence and Predictability," Advances in Econometrics, in: Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series, pages 1-39, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-9053(05)20020-8
    DOI: 10.1016/S0731-9053(05)20020-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1016/S0731-9053(05)20020-8/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1016/S0731-9053(05)20020-8/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/S0731-9053(05)20020-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gregory Bauer & Keith Vorkink, 2007. "Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility," Staff Working Papers 07-20, Bank of Canada.
    2. Doan, Bao & Jayasuriya, Dulani & Lee, John B. & Reeves, Jonathan J., 2024. "Cryptocurrency systematic risk dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    3. Helmut Herwartz, 2006. "Econometric analysis of high frequency data," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 89-104, March.
    4. Alfred Mbairadjim Moussa & Jules Sadefo Kamdem & Arnold F. Shapiro & Michel Terraza, 2012. "Capital asset pricing model with fuzzy returns and hypothesis testing," Working Papers 12-33, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Sep 2012.
    5. Leong, Minhao & Alexeev, Vitali & Kwok, Simon, 2025. "Managing cryptocurrency risk exposures in equity portfolios: Evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    6. Messis, Petros & Alexandridis, Antonios K. & Zapranis, Achilleas, 2025. "A qualitative parameter for beta changes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Stoja, Evarist & Polanski, Arnold & Nguyen, Linh H. & Pereverzin, Aleksandr, 2023. "Does systematic tail risk matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Blasques, F. & Francq, Christian & Laurent, Sébastien, 2024. "Autoregressive conditional betas," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    9. Robert Ślepaczuk & Grzegorz Zakrzewski, 2009. "High-Frequency and Model-Free Volatility Estimators," Working Papers 2009-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    10. Haselmann, Rainer & Herwartz, Helmut, 2008. "Portfolio performance and the Euro: Prospects for new potential EMU members," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 314-330, March.
    11. Jose Fernandes & Augusto Hasman & Juan Ignacio Pena, 2007. "Risk premium: insights over the threshold," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 41-59.
    12. Nekhili, Ramzi & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Higher-order moments and co-moments' contribution to spillover analysis and portfolio risk management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    13. Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Shapiro, A.F. & Terraza, M., 2014. "CAPM with fuzzy returns and hypothesis testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 40-57.
    14. Jan Sila & Michael Mark & Ladislav Kristoufek & Thomas A. Weber, 2025. "Crypto market betas: the limits of predictability and hedging," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, December.
    15. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2023. "Asymmetric downside risk across different sectors of the US equity market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    16. Dovern, Jonas, 2006. "Predicting GDP components: do leading indicators increase predictability?," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 436, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    17. Shabir A.A. Saleem & Peter N. Smith & Abdullah Yalaman, 2020. "Analysis of Systematic Risk around Firm-specific News in an Emerging Market using High Frequency Data," Discussion Papers 20/09, Department of Economics, University of York.
    18. Berger, David & Chaboud, Alain & Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2009. "What drives volatility persistence in the foreign exchange market?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 192-213, November.
    19. Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2013. "A new method for estimating liquidity risk: Insights from a liquidity-adjusted CAPM framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 184-197.
    20. Quaye, Enoch & Tunaru, Diana & Tunaru, Radu, 2024. "Green-adjusted share prices: A comparison between standard investors and investors with green preferences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    21. Kim Christensen & Roel Oomen & Mark Podolskij, 2026. "Realised quantile-based estimation of the integrated variance," Papers 2601.13006, arXiv.org.
    22. Levich, Richard M. & Potì, Valerio, 2015. "Predictability and ‘good deals’ in currency markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 454-472.
    23. Donggyu Kim & Minseok Shin, 2024. "Robust High-Dimensional Time-Varying Coefficient Estimation," Working Papers 202417, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    24. Luo, Jiawen & Chen, Zhenbiao & Cheng, Mingmian, 2025. "Forecasting realized betas using predictors indicating structural breaks and asymmetric risk effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    25. Kalnina, Ilze & Tewou, Kokouvi, 2025. "Cross-sectional dependence in idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PB).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-9053(05)20020-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.