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Bottlenecks in Ramping Up Public Investment

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  • Frederick van der Ploeg

Abstract

A windfall in a developing economy with capital scarcity and investment adjustment costs facing a temporary windfall should be used to give more consumption to poorer present generations and to speed up development by ramping up public investment and paying off debt taking due account of the increasing inefficiency as investment gets ramped up. The optimal strategy requires negative genuine saving; the permanent income requires zero genuine saving. The optimal real consumption increments are smaller once one allows for absorption constraints resulting from Dutch disease and sluggish adjustment of -grown’ public capital.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford in its series OxCarre Working Papers with number 066.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:066

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Keywords: optimal management of windfalls; economic development; capital scarcity; public capital; PIMI; investment adjustment costs; absorption constraints; genuine saving; Dutch disease;

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References

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  1. Bernardin Akitoby & Thomas Stratmann, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 06/16, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Neary, J Peter, 1987. "Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. John Hartwick, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investment of Rents from Exhaustible Resources in a Two Sector Model," Working Papers 281, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  4. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. " The Tyranny of Concepts: CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment Effort) Is Not Capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 361-84, December.
  5. Buiter, Willem H, 1984. "Saddlepoint Problems in Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models: A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Examples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 665-80, May.
  6. Paul Collier & Frederick van der Ploeg & Michael Spence & Anthony J Venables, 2009. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies," OxCarre Working Papers 015, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  7. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2008. "Why Do Many Resource-Rich Countries Have Negative Genuine Saving? Anticipation of Better Times or Rapacious Rent Seeking," CEPR Discussion Papers 7021, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Frederick Van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2009. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource-Rich Developing Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 2571, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J., 2010. "Absorbing A Windfall of Foreign Exchange: Dutch disease dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8086, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2002. "Institutions and the resource curse," Development and Comp Systems 0210003, EconWPA.
  11. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  12. Boschini, Anne & Pettersson, Jan & Roine, Jesper, 2003. "Resource curse or not: A question of appropriability," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 534, Stockholm School of Economics.
  13. Acemoglu, Daron & Aghion, Philippe & Bursztyn, Leonardo & Hemous, David, 2011. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 8660, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
  15. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for a Model of Precautionary Saving," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 385-95, April.
  16. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
  17. Gupta, Sanjeev & Kangur, Alvar & Papageorgiou, Chris & Wane, Abdoul, 2014. "Efficiency-Adjusted Public Capital and Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-178.
  18. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
  19. Anthony Venables, 2010. "Resource rents; when to spend and how to save," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 340-356, August.
  20. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
  22. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
  23. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. What should a country do with a windfall?
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-07-06 14:07:00
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Cited by:
  1. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J., 2010. "Absorbing A Windfall of Foreign Exchange: Dutch disease dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8086, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Samuel Wills, 2014. "Optimal Monetary Responses to Oil Discoveries," CAMA Working Papers 2014-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Ton S. van den Bremer & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2012. "How to Spend a Windfall: Dealing with volatility and capital scarcity," OxCarre Working Papers 085, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  4. Issouf Samaké & Priscilla S. Muthoora & Bruno Versailles, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability, Public Investment, and Growth in Natural Resource-Rich, Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 13/144, International Monetary Fund.

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