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Are Volatility Expectations Characterized By Regime Shifts? Evidence From Implied Volatility Indices

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Author Info
Kazuhiko Nishina (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University, Japan)
Nabil Maghrebi () (Graduate School of Economics, Wakayama University, Japan)
Mark J. Holmes (Waikato University, New Zealand)

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Abstract

This paper examines nonlinearities in the dynamics of volatility expectations using benchmarks of implied volatility for the US and Japanese markets. The evidence from Markov regime-switching models suggests that volatility expectations are likely to be governed by regimes featuring a long memory process and significant leverage effects. Market volatility is expected to increase in bear periods and decrease in bull periods. Leverage effects constitute thus an important source of nonlinearities in volatility expectations. There is no evidence of long swings associated with financial crises, which do not have the potential of shifting volatility expectations from one regime to another for long protracted periods.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) in its series Discussion Papers in Economics and Business with number 06-20.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:0620

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Web page: http://www.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/
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Related research
Keywords: Markov Regime Switching Implied Volatility Index Nonlinear Modelling.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  1. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-81. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 5351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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