This file is part of IDEAS , which uses RePEc data
[ Papers |
Articles |
Software |
Books |
Chapters |
Authors |
Institutions |
JEL Classification |
NEP reports |
Search |
New papers by email |
Author registration |
Rankings |
Volunteers |
FAQ |
Blog |
Help! ]
Forward-Looking Betas Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Peter Christoffersen
Kris Jacobs
Gregory Vainberg () (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
Few issues are more important for finance practice than the computation of market betas. Existing approaches compute market betas using historical data. While these approaches differ in terms of statistical sophistication and the modeling of the time-variation in the betas, they are all backward-looking. This paper introduces a radically different approach to estimating market betas. Using the tools in Bakshi and Madan (2000) and Bakshi, Kapadia and Madan (2003) we employ the information embedded in the prices of individual stock options and index options to compute our forward-looking market beta at the daily frequency. This beta can be computed using option data for a single day, and is able to reflect sudden changes in the structure of the underlying company. Based on an empirical investigation of daily cross-sections of option contracts on thirty underlying companies, we conclude that these forward-looking betas contain information relevant for forecasting future betas that is not contained in historical betas.
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page . Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number
2007-39.
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
(with abstract ),
plain text
(with abstract ),
BibTeX ,
RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite),
ReDIF
Length: 59
Date of creation: 22 Nov 2007Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2007-39Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().
Keywords: market beta ; CAPM ; historical ; forward-looking ; option-implied ; capital budgeting ; event studies ; model-free moments ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports :
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988.
"A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Rubinstein, Mark, 1994.
" Implied Binomial Trees ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992.
" The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993.
"Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds ,"
Journal of Financial Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2006.
"A No-Arbitrage Approach to Range-Based Estimation of Return Covariances and Correlations ,"
Journal of Business ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 61-74, January.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold & April, .
"A No-Arbitrage Approach to Range-Based Estimation of Return Covariances and Correlations ,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
03-15, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
[Downloadable!] Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2003.
"A No-Arbitrage Approach to Range-Based Estimation of Return Covariances and Correlations ,"
NBER Working Papers
9664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2001.
"A No-Arbitrage Approach to Range-Based Estimation of Return Covariances and Correlations ,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
03-013, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Apr 2003.
[Downloadable!] Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2004.
"A No-Arbitrage Approach to Range-Based Estimation of Return Covariances and Correlations ,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2004/07, Center for Financial Studies.
[Downloadable!] Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999.
"Conditioning Variables and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns ,"
NBER Working Papers
7009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Blume, Marshall E, 1975.
"Betas and Their Regression Tendencies ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 785-95, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995.
"Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns? ,"
Journal of Business ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-49, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jon A. Christopherson & Wayne E. Ferson & Debra A. Glassman, 1996.
"Conditioning Manager Alphas on Economic Information: Another Look at the Persistence of Performance ,"
NBER Working Papers
5830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Schwert, G William, 1989.
" Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time? ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Dennis, Patrick & Mayhew, Stewart, 2002.
"Risk-Neutral Skewness: Evidence from Stock Options ,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis ,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 471-493, September.
[Downloadable!]
Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001.
"Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977.
"Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data ,"
Journal of Financial Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998.
"The relation between implied and realized volatility1 ,"
Journal of Financial Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Thomas Busch & Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2007.
"The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock, and Bond Markets ,"
CREATES Research Papers
2007-09, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Heber Farnsworth, 2002.
"Performance Evaluation with Stochastic Discount Factors ,"
Journal of Business ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 473-504, July.
[Downloadable!]
Pong, Shiuyan & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 2004.
"Forecasting currency volatility: A comparison of implied volatilities and AR(FI)MA models ,"
Journal of Banking & Finance ,
Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2541-2563, October.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Harvey, Campbell R., 1989.
"Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models ,"
Journal of Financial Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy Simin, 2002.
"Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics? ,"
NBER Working Papers
9143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993.
"The Informational Content of Implied Volatility ,"
Review of Financial Studies ,
Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-81.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973.
"Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Bos, T & Newbold, P, 1984.
"An Empirical Investigation of the Possibility of Stochastic Systematic Risk in the Market Model ,"
Journal of Business ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 35-41, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997.
"Event Studies in Economics and Finance ,"
Journal of Economic Literature ,
American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W. J. Granger, 2003.
"Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review ,"
Journal of Economic Literature ,
American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
Wayne E. Ferson, 2003.
"Tests of Multifactor Pricing Models, Volatility Bounds and Portfolio Performance ,"
NBER Working Papers
9441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993.
"Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities ,"
Review of Financial Studies ,
Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Mark Rubinstein., 1994.
"Implied Binomial Trees ,"
Research Program in Finance Working Papers
RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
[Downloadable!]
Heber Farnsworth & Wayne E. Ferson & David Jackson & Steven Todd, 2002.
"Performance Evaluation with Stochastic Discount Factors ,"
NBER Working Papers
8791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996.
"The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns ,"
Staff Report
208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Blume, Marshall E, 1971.
"On the Assessment of Risk ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-10, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jostova, Gergana & Philipov, Alexander, 2005.
"Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Betas ,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis ,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(04), pages 747-778, December.
[Downloadable!]
Ferson, Wayne E & Schadt, Rudi W, 1996.
" Measuring Fund Strategy and Performance in Changing Economic Conditions ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 425-61, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996.
" Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jensen, Michael C, 1969.
"Risk, The Pricing of Capital Assets, and the Evaluation of Investment Portfolios ,"
Journal of Business ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 167-247, April.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Fama, Eugene F, 1991.
" Efficient Capital Markets: II ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
William F. Sharpe, 1965.
"Mutual Fund Performance ,"
Journal of Business ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 119.
[Downloadable!]
Jorion, Philippe, 1995.
" Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full
references
Access and
download statistics Did you know? You too can volunteer for RePEc, for example by encouraging others to use our services.
This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics , College of Liberal Arts and Sciences , University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics .