Â‘Guns and ButterÂ’ in U.S. Presidential Elections
AbstractPrevious models of the popular vote in U.S. Presidential elections emphasize economic growth and price stability, the role of parties and incumbency, and pre-election expectations for the future. Despite an apparent statistical dead heat in the pre-election polls in 2004, formal models instead predict a landslide victory for President Bush. An obvious question is whether this anomaly arises, at least in part, from national security concerns Â– in particular, the conflict in Iraq. We attempt to resolve this pre-election anomaly by introducing two opposing electoral forces capturing national security concerns, which for the 2004 election reduces President Bush's predicted vote share. In general, the impact of national security concerns on the vote share of the incumbent (or the incumbent's party) may be positive, as in the 1944 election during World War II, or negative, as in the 1952 election during the Korean war and the 1968 election during the Vietnam war.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2004-12.
Date of creation: 29 Aug 2004
Date of revision: 20 Sep 2004
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presidential; elections; security; war; voting;
Other versions of this item:
- A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-09-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-HIS-2004-09-05 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-POL-2004-09-05 (Positive Political Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May.
- Ray C. Fair, 1976. "The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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