This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Updating Subjective Risks in the Presence of Conflicting Information: An Application to Climate Change

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Trudy Ann Cameron () (Department of Economics, University of Oregon)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Willingness to support public programs for risk management often depends on individual subjective risk perceptions in the face of uncertain science. As part of a larger study concerning climate change, we explore individual updated subjective risks as a function of individual priors, the nature of external information, and individual attributes. We examine several rival hypotheses about how subjective risks change in the face of new information (Bayesian updating, alarmist learning, and ambiguity aversion). The source and nature of external information, as well as its collective ambiguity, can have varying effects across the population, in terms of both expectations and uncertainty.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2003-8_Cameron_Updating_Subjective_Risks.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2003-8.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 44
Date of creation: 14 Jul 2001
Date of revision: 14 Jul 2001
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2003-8

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1285 University of Oregon, 435 PLC, Eugene, OR 97403-1285
Phone: (541) 346-4661
Fax: (541) 346-1243
Email:
Web page: http://economics.uoregon.edu/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Bill Harbaugh).

Related research
Keywords: risk elicitation; subjective probability; prior/ posterior distributions; ambiguity aversion; Bayesian updating; alarmist learning;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries
Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. DeShazo, J. R. & Fermo, German, 2002. "Designing Choice Sets for Stated Preference Methods: The Effects of Complexity on Choice Consistency," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 123-143, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor Jr. & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Arrow, Kenneth J, 1982. "Risk Perception in Psychology and Economics," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
  4. Smith, V Kerry & Desvousges, William H & Payne, John W, 1995. "Do Risk Information Programs Promote Mitigating Behavior?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 203-21, May.
  5. Blomquist, Glenn C. & Whitehead, John C., 1998. "Resource quality information and validity of willingness to pay in contingent valuation," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 179-196, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hoehn, John P. & Randall, Alan, 2002. "The effect of resource quality information on resource injury perceptions and contingent values," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 13-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Viscusi, W Kip & Magat, Wesley A, 1992. " Bayesian Decisions with Ambiguous Belief Aversion," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 371-87, October.
  8. Smith, V Kerry & Desvousges, William H, 1987. "An Empirical Analysis of the Economic Value of Risk Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 89-114, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cameron, Trudy Ann & Englin, Jeffrey, 1997. "Respondent Experience and Contingent Valuation of Environmental Goods," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 296-313, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Viscusi, W Kip & O'Connor, Charles J, 1984. "Adaptive Responses to Chemical Labeling: Are Workers Bayesian Decision Makers?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 942-56, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Viscusi, W Kip, 1997. "Alarmist Decisions with Divergent Risk Information," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1657-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Viscusi, W Kip, 1985. "Are Individuals Bayesian Decision Makers?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 381-85, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Cameron, Trudy Ann, 2005. "Individual option prices for climate change mitigation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 283-301, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. " Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
  15. Viscusi, W. Kip, 1985. "A Bayesian perspective on biases in risk perception," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 59-62. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Xuehong Wang & John Rolfe, 2009. "Incorporating issues of risk and uncertainty into Choice Modelling experiments," Environmental Economics Research Hub Research Reports 0912, Environmental Economics Research Hub, Crawford School, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
  2. David Aadland & Arthur Caplan & Owen Phillips, 2007. "A Bayesian examination of information and uncertainty in contingent valuation," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 149-178, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Adeline Delavande, 2008. "Measuring revisions to subjective expectations," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 43-82, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Trudy Ann Cameron, 2002. "Individual Option Prices for Climate Change Mitigation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Jul 2002. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. David Kelly & David Letson & Forest Nelson & David S. Nolan & Daniel Solis, 2009. "Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 0905, University of Miami, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. W. Viscusi & William Evans, 2006. "Behavioral Probabilities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 5-15, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About 1000 archives contribute their bibliographic data to RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.