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Updating Subjective Risks in the Presence of Conflicting Information: An Application to Climate Change

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Author Info
Trudy Ann Cameron () (Department of Economics, University of Oregon)

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Abstract

Willingness to support public programs for risk management often depends on individual subjective risk perceptions in the face of uncertain science. As part of a larger study concerning climate change, we explore individual updated subjective risks as a function of individual priors, the nature of external information, and individual attributes. We examine several rival hypotheses about how subjective risks change in the face of new information (Bayesian updating, alarmist learning, and ambiguity aversion). The source and nature of external information, as well as its collective ambiguity, can have varying effects across the population, in terms of both expectations and uncertainty.

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File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2003-8_Cameron_Updating_Subjective_Risks.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2003-8.

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Length: 44
Date of creation: 14 Jul 2001
Date of revision: 14 Jul 2001
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2003-8

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Postal: 1285 University of Oregon, 435 PLC, Eugene, OR 97403-1285
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Related research
Keywords: risk elicitation subjective probability prior/ posterior distributions ambiguity aversion Bayesian updating alarmist learning

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries
Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. DeShazo, J. R. & Fermo, German, 2002. "Designing Choice Sets for Stated Preference Methods: The Effects of Complexity on Choice Consistency," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 123-143, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Arrow, Kenneth J, 1982. "Risk Perception in Psychology and Economics," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
  3. Cameron, Trudy Ann & Englin, Jeffrey, 1997. "Respondent Experience and Contingent Valuation of Environmental Goods," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 296-313, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Trudy Ann Cameron, 2002. "Individual Option Prices for Climate Change Mitigation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Jul 2002. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Trudy Ann Cameron, 2002. "Individual Option Prices for Climate Change Mitigation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Jul 2002. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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