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Dinner with Bayes: On the revision of risk beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph M. Rheinberger

    (European Chemicals Agency)

  • James K. Hammitt

    (Harvard University
    University of Toulouse)

Abstract

We study how people form and revise health risk beliefs based on food safety information. In an online experiment, subjects stated their perceived risk of contracting a foodborne illness before and after receiving information about the population average risk and the eating habits of the average consumer. Precautionary effort in handling and preparing food reduced prior risk beliefs, but did not affect the belief revision process. About one quarter of subjects either fully ignored the information provided or revised their beliefs inconsistently with the Bayesian learning hypothesis. We find several factors related to the subjects’ numerical skills that explain information refusal and inconsistent belief revisions and discuss them in the context of health risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph M. Rheinberger & James K. Hammitt, 2018. "Dinner with Bayes: On the revision of risk beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 253-280, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:57:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11166-018-9294-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-018-9294-2
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beliefs; Risk perception; Bayesian updating; Precautionary behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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