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The Dynamics of Social Assistance Receipt: Measurement and Modelling Issues, with an Application to Britain

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Author Info
Lorenzo Cappellari
Stephen P. Jenkins

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Abstract

We model the dynamics of social assistance benefit receipt in Britain using data from the British Household Panel Survey, waves 1–15. First, we discuss definitions of social assistance benefit receipt, and present information about the trends between 1991 and 2005 in the receipt of social assistance benefits, and in annual rates of transition into and out of receipt. Second, we review potential multivariate modelling approaches especially the dynamic random effects probit models that are used in our empirical analysis and, third, discuss sample selection criteria and explanatory variables. Fourth, we present our regression estimation estimates and interpret them. The final section contains a summary of the substantive results, and highlights some lessons concerning application of the analysis for other countries and some methodological issues.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/236346714741
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Paper provided by OECD, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs in its series OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers with number 67.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:oec:elsaab:67-en

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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  4. Stewart, Mark B & Swaffield, Joanna K, 1999. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 23-42, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Mary Gregory & Miriam Beblo & Wiemer Salverda & Ioannis Theodossiou, 2009. "Introduction," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(suppl_1), pages i1-i10, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2008. "Estimating low pay transition probabilities accounting for endogenous selection mechanisms," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 57(2), pages 165-186. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Paul Gregg & Jane Waldfogel, 2005. "Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(501), pages F1-F6, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Brewer, Mike & Duncan, Alan & Shephard, Andrew & Suarez, Maria Jose, 2006. "Did working families' tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 699-720, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Arulampalam, Wiji & Stewart, Mark B., 2008. "Simplified Implementation of the Heckman Estimator of the Dynamic Probit Model and a Comparison with Alternative Estimators," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 884, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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