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• Jann Lay

Assessing the final impact of globalisation on poverty is a difficult task: i) globalisation affects poverty through numerous channels; ii) some linkages are positive and some are negative and therefore cannot be analysed qualitatively but require quantitative assessments, i.e. formal numerical models; and iii) trade expansion and growth (key aspects of globalisation) are essentially macro phenomena, whereas poverty is fundamentally a micro phenomenon. In this paper we use a new method that combines a micro-simulation model and a standard CGE model. These two models are used in a sequential fashion (as in a recent paper by Robilliard et al., 2002). The CGE model and the micro-simulation model are calibrated using a recent SAM and household survey for Colombia and together they capture the structural features of the economy and its detailed income generation mechanisms. We use this framework to analyse the important income distribution and poverty changes occurred with the great ...

L’évaluation de l’impact ultime de la mondialisation sur la pauvreté est loin d’être aisée: i) la mondialisation affecte la pauvreté de diverses manières; ii) certaines relations sont positives mais d’autres sont négatives, ce qui exclut une analyse qualitative et oblige à des évaluations quantitatives — donc à faire appel à des modèles numériques formels; iii) le développement des échanges et la croissance (les caractéristiques clés de la mondialisation) sont surtout des phénomènes macro, alors que la pauvreté est par essence un phénomène micro. Les auteurs de ce document adoptent une nouvelle méthode, qui associe un modèle de micro-simulation à un modèle EGC classique. Les deux sont utilisés de manière séquentielle (à l’instar de l’étude récente de Robilliard et al., 2002). Le modèle EGC et le modèle de micro-simulation sont calibrés à l’aide d’une MCS récente et d’une enquête auprès des ménages colombiens ; ensemble, ils restituent les caractéristiques structurelles de ...

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Paper provided by OECD Development Centre in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 226.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:226-en

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1. Hertel, Thomas W. & Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2004. "Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3444, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
   Other versions:
   • Thomas Hertel & Jeffrey Reimer, 2005. "Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 377-405, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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This page was last updated on 2008-11-16.