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Updating Ambiguity Averse Preferences

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Author Info
Eran Hanany
Peter Klibanoff
Abstract

Dynamic consistency leads to Bayesian updating under expected utility. We ask what it implies for the updating of more general preferences. In this paper, we charac- terize dynamically consistent update rules for preference models satisfying ambiguity aversion. This characterization extends to regret-based models as well. As an appli- cation of our general result, we characterize dynamically consistent updating for two important models of ambiguity averse preferences: the ambiguity averse smooth am- biguity preferences (Klibanoff, Marinacci and Mukerji [Econometrica 73 2005, pp. 1849-1892]) and the variational preferences (Maccheroni, Marinacci and Rustichini [Econometrica 74 2006, pp. 1447-1498]). The latter includes max-min expected utility (Gilboa and Schmeidler [Journal of Mathematical Economics 18 1989, pp. 141-153]) and the multiplier preferences of Hansen and Sargent [American Economic Review 91(2) 2001, pp. 60-66] as special cases. For smooth ambiguity preferences, we also identify a simple rule that is shown to be the unique dynamically consistent rule among a large class of rules that may be expressed as reweightings of Bayes's rule.

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Paper provided by Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science in its series Discussion Papers with number 1468.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nwu:cmsems:1468

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Related research
Keywords: Updating; Dynamic Consistency; Ambiguity; Regret; Ellsberg; Bayesian; Consequentialism; Smooth Ambiguity;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving

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