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Foundations of ambiguity and economic modeling

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Sujoy Mukerji

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Abstract

Are foundations of models of ambiguity-sensitive preferences too flawed to be usefully applied to economic models? Al-Najjar and Weinstein (2009) say such is indeed the case. In this paper, first, we point out that many of the key arguments by Al-Najjar and Weinstein do not apply to quite a few of the ambiguity preference models of more recent vintage, and therefore to that extent do not undermine the foundational aspects or applicability of ambiguity models in general. Second, we argue the focus in that paper on Ellsberg examples is an overly narrow concern; the Ellsberg examples have their uses but they are not the best context to understand why reasonable real-world agents may find acting with ambiguity-sensitive preferences normatively or prescriptively appealing. Finally, normative considerations aside, we submit that Al-Najjar and Weinstein are unduly dismissive of the power of such preferences to provide illuminating positive analyses of economic phenomena.

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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 433.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:433

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Related research
Keywords: Ambiguity; Uncertainty; Knightian uncertainty; Ambiguity aversion; Uncertainty aversion; Ellsberg paradox; Dynamic decision making; Dynamic Programming under ambiguity; Smooth ambiguity; Consequentialism; Sunk cost fallacy; Multiple priors; Rationality;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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  1. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006. "Dynamic Variational Preferences," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 1, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Klibanoff, Peter & Marinacci, Massimo & Mukerji, Sujoy, 2009. "Recursive smooth ambiguity preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 930-976, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Klibanoff, Peter & Hanany, Eran, 2007. "Updating preferences with multiple priors," Theoretical Economics, Society for Economic Theory, vol. 2(3), pages 261-298, September. [Downloadable!]
  4. Epstein, Larry G. & Schneider, Martin, 2003. "Recursive multiple-priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-31, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Sujoy Mukerji & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2003. "An overview of economic applications of David Schmeidler`s models of decision making under uncertainty," Economics Series Working Papers 172, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2005. "A Smooth Model of Decision Making under Ambiguity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1849-1892, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew W. Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2008. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 173-88, Summer.
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