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Specifying, Estimating and Validating a New Trip Generation Model: Case Study in Montgomery County, Maryland

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  • Ajay Kumar
  • David Levinson

    ()
    (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)

Abstract

This paper discusses the development of an afternoon peak period trip generation model for both work and non-work trips. Three data sources are used in model development, a Household Travel Survey, a Census-Update Survey, and a Trip Generation Study. Seven one-direction trip purposes are defined, specifically accounting for stops made on the return trip from work to home. Trips are classified by origin and destination activities rather than by production and attraction, so reframing the conventional schema of home-based and non-home-based trips. Prior to estimating the model, the Household Travel Survey was demographically calibrated against the Census-Update to minimize demographic bias. A model of home-end trip generation is estimated using the Household Travel Survey as a cross-classification of the demographic factors of age and household size in addition to dwelling type. Non-home-end generation uses employment by type and population. The model was validated by comparison with a site based Trip Generation Study, which revealed an under-reporting of the relatively short and less regular shopping trips. Normalization procedures are developed to ensure that all ends of a chained trip were properly accounted for. .

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File URL: http://nexus.umn.edu/Papers/TripGeneration.pdf
File Function: First version, 2007
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group in its series Working Papers with number 199401.

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Date of creation: 1994
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Publication status: Published in Transportation Research Record #1413: 107-113
Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:tripgeneration

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Postal: Dept. of Civil Engineering, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455
Phone: +01 (612) 625-6354
Fax: +01 (612) 626-7750
Web page: http://nexus.umn.edu
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  1. David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1995. "A Multi-modal Trip Distribution Model," Working Papers 199503, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  2. David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1994. "Operational Evidence of Changing Travel Patterns," Working Papers 199403, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  3. David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1994. "The Rational Locator: Why Travel Times Have Remained Stable," Working Papers 199402, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  4. David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1994. "Integrating Feedback into the Transportation Planning Mode," Working Papers 199404, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
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Cited by:
  1. Weis, Claude & Axhausen, Kay W., 2009. "Induced travel demand: Evidence from a pseudo panel data based structural equations model," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 8-18.
  2. David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1995. "A Multi-modal Trip Distribution Model," Working Papers 199503, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.

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