Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth
AbstractThis research assesses the implications of existing trends on future network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets and investment rules across a variety of performance measures. The main scenarios compare 'stated decision rules';, processes encoded in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion with agency staff, with 'revealed decision rules', weights estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. Results for different scenarios are presented including adding additional constraints for the transportation network expansion and calibration process details. We find that alternative decision rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though they direct investments to very different locations. However, changes in total budget can make a significant difference to system-wide performance.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group in its series Working Papers with number 000010.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
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Postal: Dept. of Civil Engineering, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455
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Web page: http://nexus.umn.edu
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Other versions of this item:
- R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion
- R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
- R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-CSE-2007-03-31 (Economics of Strategic Management)
- NEP-FOR-2007-03-31 (Forecasting)
- NEP-NET-2007-03-31 (Network Economics)
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- Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2007.
"Jurisdictional Control and Network Growth,"
200906, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- Feng Xie & David Levinson, 2008. "Evaluating the Effects of I-35W Bridge Collapse on Road-Users in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Region," Working Papers 000043, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Levinson).
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