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Mortality Change, the Uncertainty Effect, and Retirement

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Author Info
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
David N. Weil

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Abstract

We examine the role of changing mortality in explaining the rise of retirement over the course of the 20th century. We construct a model in which individuals make labor/leisure choices over their lifetimes subject to uncertainty about their date of death. In an environment in which mortality is high, an individual who saved up for retirement would face a high risk of dying before he could enjoy his planned leisure. In this case, the optimal plan is for people to work until they die. As mortality falls, however, it becomes optimal to plan, and save for, retirement. We simulate our model using actual changes in the US life table over the last century, and show that this 'uncertainty effect' of declining mortality would have more than outweighed the 'horizon effect' by which rising life expectancy would have led to later retirement. One of our key results is that continuous changes in mortality can lead to discontinuous changes in retirement behavior.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8742.

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Date of creation: Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8742

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Moshe Hazan, 2006. "Longevity and Lifetime Labor Input: Data and Implications," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_065, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Owen O'Donnell & Federica Teppa & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2008. "Can subjective survival expectations explain retirement behaviour?," DNB Working Papers 188, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore & Younghwan Song, 2006. "The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States," PGDA Working Papers 1706, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2002. "Longevity and Life Cycle Savings," NBER Working Papers 8808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Andrew Mason & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2005. "East Asian Economic Development: Two Demographic Dividends," Economics Study Area Working Papers 83, East-West Center, Economics Study Area. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2004. "The Effect of Improvements in Health and Longevity on Optimal Retirement and Saving," NBER Working Papers 10919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Karen Kopecky, 2005. "The Trend in Retirement," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 12, Economie d'Avant Garde. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Rick Mansfield & Michael Moore, 2006. "Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings," NBER Working Papers 12621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes & Pessoa, Samuel de Abreu, 2005. "The Effects of Longevity and Distortions on Education and Retirement," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 590, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2007. "A Theory of Retirement," NBER Working Papers 13630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "Demographic Change, Institutional Settings, and Labor Supply," PGDA Working Papers 4208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ben J. Heijdra & Ward E. Romp, 2007. "Retirement, Pensions, and Ageing," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes & Santos, Marcelo Rodrigues dos, 2008. "The Effect of Social Security, Demography and Technology on Retirement," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 683, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  14. Cruz A. Echevarria & Amaia Iza, 2005. "Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth," DFAEII Working Papers 200517, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, revised 16 Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  15. D'ALBIS Hippolyte & AUGERAUD-VERON Emmanuelle, 2007. "Endogenous Retirement and Monetary Cycles," Working Papers 07.14.235, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
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