A Quantative Analysis of Swedish Fertility Dynamics: 1751-1990
AbstractThis paper analyses the relationship between age-specific fertility, mortality and real wages in Sweden during the demographic transition. We take an overlapping generation’s model of life cycle fertility and fit it to actual Swedish time-series data over the past two and a half centuries. The model fits the data well, accurately portraying the total fertility decline from more than four children per female before the mid-19th century to about two children today. About 80% of this decline was in fertility that occurred at female ages over 30. The fitted model implies that reductions in child mortality over this period is the most important factor explaining the fertility decline, while real wage increases can explain only less than one-third of the decline in fertility. Their combined effect was, however, considerably larger than a simple summing-up would predict. The fertility decline was also magnified by the combination of increasing real wages and rising adult survival rates. In addition, we find that a model that is estimated using only pre-transition data would actually overstate the subsequent fertility decline.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1832.
Date of creation: Apr 1998
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Other versions of this item:
- Zvi Eckstein & Pedro Mira & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1999. "A Quantitative Analysis of Swedish Fertility Dynamics: 1751-1990," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 137-165, January.
- Eckstein, Z. & Mira, P. & Wolpin, K.I., 1997. "A Quantitative Analysis of Swedish Fertility Dynamics: 1751-1990," Papers 9713, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
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- Eckstein, Zvi & Schultz, T. Paul & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 1984. "Short-run fluctuations in fertility and mortality in pre-industrial Sweden," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-317, December.
- Razin, Assaf & Ben-Zion, Uri, 1975. "An Intergenerational Model of Population Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 923-33, December.
- Becker, Gary S & Barro, Robert J, 1988.
"A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25, February.
- Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, . "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 85-11, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," NBER Working Papers 1793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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