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Mortality Change, the Uncertainty Effect, and Retirement

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Author Info
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (The University of Houston)
David Weil (Brown University and NBER)

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Abstract

We examine the role of changing mortality in explaining the rise of retirement over the course of the 20th century. We construct a model in which individuals make labor/leisure choices over their lifetimes subject to uncertainty about their date of death. In an environment in which mortality is high, an individual who saved up for retirement would face a high risk of dying before he could enjoy his planned leisure. In this case, the optimal plan is for people to work until they die. As mortality falls, however, it becomes optimal to plan, and save for, retirement. We simulate our model using actual changes in the US life table over the last century, and show that this “uncertainty e ect” of declining mortality would have more than outweighed the “horizon e ect” by which rising life expectancy would have led to later retirement. One of our key results is that continuous changes in mortality can lead to discontinuous changes in retirement behavior.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0212006.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 17 Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0212006

Note: Type of Document - Tex; prepared on PC; to print on HP; pages: 31 ; figures: included. working paper (revise and resubmit)
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: uncertainty retirement

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Weil, David N., 1993. "The economics of population aging," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 967-1014 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2002. "A Stochastic Model of Mortality, Fertility, and Human Capital Investment," Macroeconomics 0212009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Gruber, Jonathan & Wise, David, 1998. "Social Security and Retirement: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 158-63, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Pestieau, P., 2001. "Are We Retiring Too Early?," Liege - Groupe d'Etude des Mathematiques du Management et de l'Economie 2001/03, UNIVERSITE DE LIEGE, Faculte d'economie, de gestion et de sciences sociales, Groupe d'Etude des Mathematiques du Management et de l'Economie.
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  14. Romain Duval, 2003. "The Retirement Effects of Old-Age Pension and Early Retirement Schemes in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 370, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Moshe Hazan, 2006. "Longevity and Lifetime Labor Input: Data and Implications," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_065, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore & Younghwan Song, 2006. "The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States," PGDA Working Papers 1706, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2002. "Longevity and Life Cycle Savings," NBER Working Papers 8808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Andrew Mason & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2005. "East Asian Economic Development: Two Demographic Dividends," Economics Study Area Working Papers 83, East-West Center, Economics Study Area. [Downloadable!]
  5. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2004. "The Effect of Improvements in Health and Longevity on Optimal Retirement and Saving," NBER Working Papers 10919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Karen Kopecky, 2005. "The Trend in Retirement," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 12, Economie d'Avant Garde. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Rick Mansfield & Michael Moore, 2006. "Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings," NBER Working Papers 12621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes Ferreira & Samuel de Abreu Pessôa, 2005. "The Effects of Longevity and Distortions on Education and Retirement," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 590, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2007. "A Theory of Retirement," NBER Working Papers 13630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Ben J. Heijdra & Ward E. Romp, 2007. "Retirement, Pensions, and Ageing," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  11. Cruz A. Echevarria & Amaia Iza, 2005. "Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth," DFAEII Working Papers 200517, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II, revised 16 Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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