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On the Fundamentals of Self-Fulfilling Speculative Attacks

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Author Info
Craig Burnside
Martin Eichenbaum
Sergio T. Rebelo

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Abstract

This paper proposes a theory of twin banking-currency crises in which both fundamentals and self-fulfilling beliefs play crucial roles. Fundamentals determine whether crises will occur. Self-fulfilling beliefs determine when they occur. The fundamental that causes twin crises' is government guarantees to domestic banks' foreign creditors. When these guarantees are in place twin crises inevitably occur, but their timing is a multiple equilibrium phenomenon that depends on agents' beliefs. So while self-fulfilling beliefs have an important role to play, twin crises do not happen just anywhere. They happen in countries where there are fundamental problems - problems such as guarantees to the financial sector.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7554.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7554

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Philippe AGHION & Philippe BACCHETTA & Abhijit BANERJEE, 1999. "A Simple Model of Monetary Policy and Currency Crises," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9914, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Global Financial Instability: Framework, Events, Issues," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 3-20, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1998. "Under What Circumstances, Past and Present, Have International Rescues of Countries in Financial Distress Been Successful?," NBER Working Papers 6824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1999. "Asking the right questions about the IMF," Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, pages 3-26.
  6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis," Research Paper 9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Burnside, C. & Eichenbaum, M. & Rebelo, S., 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," RCER Working Papers 458, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  8. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," Working Paper Series WP-99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1997. "Financial fragility and the exchange rate regime," Working Paper 97-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "Hot money," Staff Report 228, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2000. "Balance SHeet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 8060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Huberto M. Ennis, 2000. "Banking and the political support for dollarization," Working Paper 00-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "Optimal bailout during currency and financial crises: A sequential game analysis," Memorandum 27/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dennis P. J. Botman & Cees G. H. Diks, 2005. "The Role of Domestic and Foreign Investors in a Simple Model of Speculative Attacks," IMF Working Papers 05/205, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "A Corporate Balance Sheet Approach to Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 3092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2001. "Fiscal Deficits And Currency Crises," Departmental Working Papers 140, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. David A. Marshall, 2001. "The crisis of 1998 and the role of the central bank," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 2-23. [Downloadable!]
  9. Olli Castrén & Tuomas Takalo, 2000. "Capital market development, corporate governance and the credibility of exchange rate pegs," Working Paper Series 34, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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