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Revealing Comparative Advantage: Chaotic or Coherent Patterns Across Time and Sector and U.S. Trading Partner?

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Author Info
J. David Richardson
Chi Zhang
Abstract

We map United States comparative advantage between 1980 and 1995, by trading partner and region, using Balassa's export-based index of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA). We find: temporally stable and ubiquitous US comparative advantage in differentiated producer goods (except disadvantage in Japan); somewhat less stable and less sweeping US disadvantage in standardized producer goods; chaotic and diverse patterns of US RCA in consumer goods (especially in the Chinese market). Our most significant findings are surprisingly sharp geographical differences in patterns of US RCA and surprisingly small differences across sub-sectors of 1, 2, and 3-digit SITC classifications - regional, but not sectoral, niche' specialization. The high overall variability across regions in RCA indexes seems unrelated to obvious explanations such as proximity or lingual/historical ties to the US. In producer goods, RCA variability across regions correlates somewhat better with accounts of trade diversion and of regional preferences for and discrimination against US exports. We find only scant evidence of high or increasing variability across disaggregated commodity sub-groups in US RCA indexes. Such variability is often the prediction of theories of comparative advantage that are based on vertical specialization, product differentiation, or scale and agglomeration economies.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7212.

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Date of creation: Jul 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7212

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F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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  1. David Hummels & Dana Rapoport & Kei-Mu Yi, 1998. "Vertical specialization and the changing nature of world trade," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 79-99. [Downloadable!]
  2. Wolff, E.N., 1996. "Specialization and Productivity Performance in Low-,Medium-,and High-Tech Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 96-38, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Milka S. Kirova & Robert S. Lipsey, 1998. "Measuring Real Investment: Trends in the United States and International Comparisons," NBER Working Papers 6404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hoekman, Bernard & Djankov, Simeon, 1997. "Determinants of the Export Structure of Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 471-87, September.
  5. Mordechai E. Kreinin & Michael G. Plummer, 1994. "Structural Change And Regional Integration In East Asia," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 1-12, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Proudman, James & Redding, Stephen J, 1998. "Persistence and Mobility in International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 1802, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Arye Hillman, 1980. "Observations on the relation between “revealed comparative advantage” and comparative advantage as indicated by pre-trade relative prices," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 315-321, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Balassa, Bela & Noland, Marcus, 1989. "The changing comparative advantage of Japan and the United States," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 174-188, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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