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On the Dynamics of Trade Patterns

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Author Info
Andrea Brasili (Banca Intesa)
Paolo Epifani (Bocconi University CESPRI)
Rodolfo Helg (Cattaneo University LIUC)

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Abstract

In this paper we analyse the dynamics of trade patterns in the six largest industrialised countries and in eight fast growing Asian economies. For each of these countries we study the shape of the sectoral distribution of an index of trade specialisation and its evolution over time. Our analysis shows a marked difference between the advanced and the emerging countries as far as the degree of persistence is concerned: the former have in fact a highly persistent trade pattern, whereas the latter show a rapidly changing trade specialisation. However, the two groups of countries are more similar as far as the evolution of the degree of specialisation is concerned: although emerging countries are still more specialised than the industrialised countries, both groups show a tendency toward a reduced polarisation and a more symmetric distribution of the specialisation index. This evidence is in line with the traditional trade theory, in which changing comparative advantage is the determinant of a changing trade pattern. On the contrary, this evidence does not support the idea that self- reinforcing mechanisms are prominent in international trade specialisation.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0004006.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 27 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0004006

Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC ; to print on HP/PostScript/Franciscan monk; pages: 33 ; figures: included
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Related research
Keywords: trade patterns; trade specialisation; comparative advantages; stochastic kernels;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Franco Malerba & Fabio Montobbio, 2000. "Knowledge Flows, Structure of Innovative Activity and International Specialization," KITeS Working Papers 119, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Nov 2000. [Downloadable!]
  2. Amador, João & Cabral, Sónia & Ramos Maria, José, 2007. "International Trade Patterns over the Last Four Decades: How does Portugal Compare with other Cohesion Countries?," MPRA Paper 5996, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Luca De Benedictis & Marco Gallegati & Massimo Tamberi, . "Overall Specialization and Income: Countries Diversify," Working Papers 73, Sapienza University of Rome, CIDEI. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Marconi, Daniela & Rolli, Valeria, 2008. "Comparative Advantage Patterns and Domestic Determinants in Emerging Countries: An Analysis with a Focus on Technology," Working Papers RP2008/81, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Andrea Zaghini, 2003. "Trade advantages and specialisation dynamics in acceding countries," Working Paper Series 249, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ferto, Imre & Hubbard, L.J., 2003. "The Dynamics Of Agri-Food Trade Patterns - The Hungarian Case," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25851, International Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alessia Amighini & Stefano Chiarlone, 2003. "Rischi e opportunità dell’integrazione commerciale cinese per la competitività internazionale dell'Italia," KITeS Working Papers 149, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Nov 2003. [Downloadable!]
  8. Abhijit Sharma & Michael Dietrich, 2005. "The Indian Economy Since Liberalisation: the Structure and Composition of Exports and Industrial Transformation (1980 – 2000)," International Trade 0510015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Rodolfo Helg, 1999. "Italian districts in the international economy," LIUC Papers in Economics 68, Cattaneo University (LIUC). [Downloadable!]
  10. Amador, João & Cabral, Sonia & Ramos Maria, Jose, 2007. "Relative Export Structures and Vertical Specialization: A Simple Cross-Country Index," MPRA Paper 6208, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Andrea Brasili & Paolo Epifani & Rodolfo Helg, 1999. "On the dynamics of trade patterns," LIUC Papers in Economics 61, Cattaneo University (LIUC). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Wim Suyker & Henri L.F. de Groot & Piet Buitelaar & Jos Ebregt & Stefan Groot & Jan Möhlmann & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & Bas Straathof, 2007. "India and the Dutch economy," CPB Documents 155, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  13. Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 568, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Imre Ferto, 2007. "The Dynamics of Trade in Central and Eastern European Countries," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23. [Downloadable!]
  15. Michele Di Maio & Federico Tamagni, 2006. "The evolution of world trade and the Italian ‘anomaly': a new look," Working Papers 39-2006, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
  16. Drabik, Dusan & Bartova, Lubica, 2008. "Agri-food Trade Specialisation Pattern in the New EU Member States," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44124, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  17. Luca Benedictis & Marco Gallegati & Massimo Tamberi, 2009. "Overall trade specialization and economic development: countries diversify," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 37-55, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Michele Di Maio & Federico Tamagni, 2007. "The Evolution of the World Trade and the Italian ‘Anomaly’: A New Look," Development Working Papers 227, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano. [Downloadable!]
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