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On Latin American Populism, And Its Echoes Around the World

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

In this paper I discuss the ways in which populist experiments have evolved historically. Populists are charismatic leaders that use a fiery rhetoric to pitch the interests of “the people” against those of banks, large firms, multinational companies, the IMF, and immigrants. Populists implement redistributive policies that violate the basic laws of economics, and in particular budget constraints. Most populist experiments go through five distinct phases that span from euphoria to collapse. Historically, the vast majority of populist episodes end up with declines in national income. When everything is over, incomes of the poor and middle class tend to be lower than when the experiment was launched. I argue that many of the characteristics of traditional Latin American populism are present in more recent manifestations from around the globe.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 2019. "On Latin American Populism, And Its Echoes Around the World," NBER Working Papers 26333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26333
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dorn91-1, May.
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    3. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "The Economic Effects of Constitutions," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661926, December.
    4. Edwards, Sebastian & Magendzo, I. Igal, 2006. "Strict Dollarization and Economic Performance: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 269-282, February.
    5. Emilio Ocampo, 2019. "The Economic Analysis of Populism. A Selective Review of the Literature," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 694, Universidad del CEMA.
    6. Martinelli, César & Vega, Marco, 2018. "Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru 1960-2010: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation and Stabilization," Working Papers 2018-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Introduction to "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America"," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Marco Vega & César Martinelli, 2018. "The Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru, 1960-2017: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation and Stabilization," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-468, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolás Cachanosky & Alexandre Padilla, 2021. "Left-Populism, Commodity Prices, and Economic Crises in Latin America," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 36(Summer 20), pages 1-17.
    2. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    3. Nicolás Cachanosky & Alexandre Padilla, 2020. "A panel data analysis of Latin American populism," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 329-343, September.
    4. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    5. Acemoglu, Daron & Ajzenman, Nicolas & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Fiszbein, Martin & Molina, Carlos, 2021. "(Successful) Democracies Breed Their Own Support," IZA Discussion Papers 14691, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Georgiana-Virginia Bonea & Vlad I. Rosca, 2022. "Social policies around the minimum wage in Romania during the Covid- 19 crisis," Journal of Community Positive Practices, Catalactica NGO, issue 1, pages 3-19.
    7. Benczes, István & Szabó, Krisztina, 2023. "Társadalmi törésvonalak és gazdasági (ir)racionalitások. A közgazdaságtan szerepe és helye a populizmus kutatásában [Social cleavages and economic (ir)rationalities: The role of economics in populi," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 23-54.
    8. Spilimbergo, Antonio & Magud, Nicolas, 2021. "Economic and Institutional Consequences of Populism," CEPR Discussion Papers 15824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Campos, Luciano & Casas, Agustín, 2021. "Rara Avis: Latin American populism in the 21st century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Demirci, Murat, 2023. "Youth responses to political populism: Education abroad as a step toward emigration," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 653-673.
    11. Cachanosky, Nicolás & Salter, Alexander W. & Savanti, Ignacio, 2022. "Can dollarization constrain a populist leader? The case of Rafael Correa in Ecuador," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 430-442.
    12. Javier G. Gómez-Pineda & Julián Roa-Rozo, 2023. "A trend-cycle decomposition with hysteresis," Borradores de Economia 1230, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Carsten Hefeker & Tobias Boos & Ulrich Brand & Martin T. Braml & Barbara Fritz & Ingrid Wehr & Angelica Dominguez-Cardoza & Christoph Trebesch, 2019. "Vom Hoffnungsträger zum Problemfall: Lateinamerika verliert den Anschluss – was sind die Ursachen?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(24), pages 03-23, December.
    14. Emilio Ocampo, 2021. "The Populist Threat to Liberal Democracy," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 774, Universidad del CEMA.
    15. Rodrigo Caputo, 2022. "Addiction to inflation or to fiscal deficits? The Chilean experience of 1970s," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 99-110, January.
    16. Strobl, Martin & Sáenz de Viteri, Andrea & Rode, Martin & Bjørnskov, Christian, 2023. "Populism and inequality: Does reality match the populist rhetoric?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 1-17.
    17. Emmanuelle Auriol & Nicolas Bonneton & Mattias Polborn, 2023. "Shaking Up the System: When Populism Disciplines Elite Politicians," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_473, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    18. Giray Gozgor, 2022. "The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 229-246, January.
    19. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2023. "Household debt in the times of populism," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 202-215.
    20. Miguel Benítez Rueda, 2022. "Migración venezolana y productividad laboral en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 52, pages 35-64, December.
    21. Robert Gold, 2022. "From a better understanding of the drivers of populism to a new political agenda," Working Papers 4, Forum New Economy.
    22. Stöckl, Sebastian & Rode, Martin, 2021. "The price of populism: Financial market outcomes of populist electoral success," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 51-83.
    23. Galárraga, Omar & Harris, Jeffrey E., 2021. "Effect of an abrupt change in sexual and reproductive health policy on teen birth rates in Ecuador, 2008–2017," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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