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The Impact of Permanent Residency Delays for STEM PhDs: Who leaves and Why

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  • Shulamit Kahn
  • Megan MacGarvie

Abstract

This paper assesses whether delays in obtaining permanent residency status can explain recent declines in the share of Chinese and Indian PhD graduates from US STEM programs who remain in the US after their studies. We find that newly-binding limits on permanent visas for those from China and India with advanced degrees are significantly associated with declines in stay rates. The stay rate of Chinese graduates declines by 2.4 percentage points for each year of delay, while Indian graduates facing delays of at least 5 1/2 years have a stay rate that is 8.9 percentage points lower. The per-country permanent visa cap affects a large share of STEM PhDs who are disproportionately found in fields of study that have been crucial in stimulating US economic growth yet enroll relatively few natives. Finally, results suggest that the growth of science in countries of origin has an important influence on stay rates, while macroeconomic factors such as GDP per capita affect stay rates only via their impact on science funding. We conclude that per-country limits play a significant role in constraining the supply of highly skilled STEM workers in the US economy.

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  • Shulamit Kahn & Megan MacGarvie, 2018. "The Impact of Permanent Residency Delays for STEM PhDs: Who leaves and Why," NBER Working Papers 25175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25175
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    Cited by:

    1. Mary K. Feeney & Heyjie Jung & Timothy P. Johnson & Eric W. Welch, 2023. "U.S. Visa and Immigration Policy Challenges: Explanations for Faculty Perceptions and Intent to Leave," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 64(7), pages 1031-1057, November.
    2. Choudhury, Prithwiraj & Ganguli, Ina & Gaulé, Patrick, 2023. "Top Talent, Elite Colleges, and Migration: Evidence from the Indian Institutes of Technology," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    3. Wei Yang Tham & Joseph Staudt & Elisabeth Ruth Perlman & Stephanie D. Cheng, 2024. "Scientific Talent Leaks Out of Funding Gaps," Papers 2402.07235, arXiv.org.
    4. Jinliao He & Yanjiao Song & Xianjin Huang & Jingxia Lin, 2022. "An amenity‐based approach to excellent returning scientists' location choice in China," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(5), pages 1181-1197, October.
    5. Ina Ganguli & Shulamit Kahn & Megan MacGarvie, 2019. "Introduction to "The Roles of Immigrants and Foreign Students in US Science, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship"," NBER Chapters, in: The Roles of Immigrants and Foreign Students in US Science, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, pages 1-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Andrea Morrison, 2023. "Towards an evolutionary economic geography research agenda to study migration and innovation," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 16(3), pages 529-542.
    7. Rachman, M. Aulia, 2023. "Scholarship for catching up? The Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education (LPDP) scholarship program as a pillar of economic development policy," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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