There is considerable debate over the appropriate role for tax policy in developing economies. In one view, tax hikes reduce deficits and ease budgetary pressures, thereby encouraging long-term growth. An alternative view emphasizes the distortionary effects associated with increased taxation and the positive benefits of a carefully designed tax system. This paper tests these propositions by measuring the impact of government taxation and expenditure on aggregate output growth. A theoretical model is derived which shows that the impact of tax distortions on output growth is usually negative. The theoretical model is tested using a pooled cross-section time-series data set for 31 sub-Saharan African countries during 1965-73 and 1974-82. The regressions imply that the positive benefits of government investment during 1965-73 outweighed the distortionary effects of taxes necessary to finance them. By 1974-82, however, the marginal productivity of government investment had fallen; tax-financed public investment was predicted to have reduced output growth. The empirical results also imply that a revenue neutral shift from the import, corporate, and personal tax to a sales/excise (or consumption) tax will encourage output growth.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
2335.
Length: Date of creation: Aug 1987 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2335
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Auerbach, Alan J & Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Skinner, Jonathan, 1983.
"The Efficiency Gains from Dynamic Tax Reform,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(1), pages 81-100, February.
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