This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Fiscal Policy, Growth and Convergence in Europe

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Richard Kneller
Norman Gemmell

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Recent evidence on the impact of fiscal policy, taxes, public expenditures and budget deficits on long-run growth in OECD countries has adopted the Barro (1990) framework to distinguish between ‘productive’ and ‘unproductive’ expenditures, and ‘distortionary’ and ‘non-distortionary’ taxes. Using estimated long-run growth effects from these fiscal variables, this paper simulates the effects on growth rates of observed fiscal policy changes in the EU. With two exceptions, the individual country growth effects of actual changes in taxes, expenditures and deficits appear plausible at around -0.2 to +0.2 of a percentage point per annum. Few common policy scenarios are apparent in the data however, with key sources of differences between countries being the extent to which distortionary taxes or deficits were used to fund public spending increases and whether additional spending was focussed on ‘productive’ activities. Our results confirm that the change in the overall share of taxes or spending in GDP, or the annual budget deficit, is not a good guide to whether the growth effects of fiscal policy are likely to be positive or negative. The paper also considers whether our growth regression model, which imposes parameter homogeneity across countries, is justified. The evidence suggests this is the case, with a high degree of uniformity across countries. Finally the paper considers whether there is any evidence of ‘fiscal convergence’ across the EU. That is, are growth-affecting fiscal variables becoming more similar over time across the EU? Though data are limited, the answer to this question appears generally to be negative, with little evidence of unconditional convergence. Countries’ tax or expenditure/GDP ratios do, however, generally revert towards their steady-state paths.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ucm.es/info/econeuro/documentos/documentos/dt142002.pdf
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Economy Group in its series European Economy Group Working Papers with number 14.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eeg:euroeg:14

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Despacho 104.Pabelloon de Segundo, Facultad de Economicas. Universidad Complutense de Madrid. 28223 Pozuelo de Alarcon, Madrid
Phone: 0034913942454
Fax: 0034913942457
Email:
Web page: http://www.ucm.es/info/econeuro
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Despacho 104.Pabelloon de Segundo, Facultad de Economicas. Universidad Complutense de Madrid. 28223 Pozuelo de Alarcon, Madrid
Email:
Web: http://www.ucm.es/info/econeuro

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Ismael Sanz) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ismael Sanz to update the entry or send us the correct address..

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 600-621, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Paul Cashin, 1994. "Government Spending, Taxes, and Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 94/92, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jonathan S. Skinner, 1987. "Taxation and Output Growth: Evidence from African Countries," NBER Working Papers 2335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Younger, Stephen D, et al, 1999. "Tax Incidence in Madagascar: An Analysis Using Household Data," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 303-31, May.
  8. de la Fuente, Angel, 1997. "The empirics of growth and convergence: A selective review," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 23-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Romer, Paul M., 1989. "What determines the rate of growth and technological change?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 279, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Robert G. King & Sergio Rebelo, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," NBER Working Papers 3338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1996. "Social Insurance, Incentives and Risk Taking," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich.
    Other versions:
  12. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B., 1994. "Public investment in infrastructure in a simple growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1173-1187, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Roubini, Nouriel, 1998. "On the taxation of human and physical capital in models of endogenous growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 237-254, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Joel Slemrod, 1995. "Involvement, Prosperity, and Economic Growth?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-2), pages 373-431. [Downloadable!]
  17. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Asea, Patrick, 1997. "On the ineffectiveness of tax policy in altering long-run growth: Harberger's superneutrality conjecture," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 99-126, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 630, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Ismael Sanz & Francisco J. Velazquez, 2001. "The evolution and convergence of the government expenditure composition in the OECD countries: an analysis of the functional distribution," European Economy Group Working Papers 9, European Economy Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Martin Carree & Luuk Klomp, 1997. "Testing The Convergence Hypothesis: A Comment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 683-686, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Folster, S. & Henrekson, M., 1997. "Growth and the Public Sector: A Critique of the Critics," Research Institute of Industrial Economics Working Papers 492, Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN).
    Other versions:
  23. Stpehen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1993. "Fiscal Structures and Economic Growth: International Evidence," Macroeconomics 9309001, EconWPA, revised 23 Sep 1993. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. Paul M. Romer, 1989. "Human Capital And Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Agell, J. & Lindh, T. & Ohlsson, H., 1999. "Growth and the Public Sector: a Reply," Papers 1999:1, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    Other versions:
  27. Ismael Sanz & Francisco J. Vel·zquez, 2004. "The Evolution and Convergence of the Government Expenditure Composition in the OECD Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 119(1_2), pages 61-72, 04. [Downloadable!]
  28. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  29. Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M. H. & Tahmiscioglu, A. K., 1998. "Bayes Estimation of Short-run Coefficients in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9804, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  30. Michael Bleaney & Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller, 2001. "Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 36-57, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Nader Nazmi & Miguel D. Ramirez, 1997. "Public And Private Investment And Economic Growth In Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(1), pages 65-75, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta, 2001. "Does Human Capital Matter for Growth in OECD Countries?: Evidence from Pooled Mean-Group Estimates," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 282, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  33. Sala-I-Martin, X., 1992. "Public Welfare and Growth," Papers 666, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  34. Perotti, Roberto, 1993. "Political Equilibrium, Income Distribution, and Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(4), pages 755-76, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Paul Romer, 1991. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  36. Alesina, Alberto & Rodrik, Dani, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 465-90, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  37. Agell, Jonas & Lindh, Thomas & Ohlsson, Henry, 1997. "Growth and the public sector: A critical review essay," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 33-52, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  38. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar, 2000. "A further generalization of the Solow growth model: the role of the public sector," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-84, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Jakob Haan & Jan Sturm & Bernd Sikken, 1996. "Government capital formation: Explaining the decline," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 55-74, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Stokey, Nancy L & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Growth Effects of Flat-Rate Taxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 519-50, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  41. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  42. Koester, Reinhard B & Kormendi, Roger C, 1989. "Taxation, Aggregate Activity and Economic Growth: Cross-Country Evidence on Some Supply-Side Hypotheses," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 367-86, July.
  43. Romer, Paul M., 1990. "Human capital and growth: Theory and evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 251-286, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  44. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government," NBER Working Papers 2855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  45. Hansson, Par & Henrekson, Magnus, 1994. " A New Framework for Testing the Effect of Government Spending on Growth and Productivity," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 81(3-4), pages 381-401, December.
  46. Eric M. Engen & Jonathan Skinner, 1992. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  47. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marta Simões, 2004. "The Education-growth Nexus Across OECD Countries: Schooling Levels and Parameter Heterogeneity," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_029, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sourafel Girma, 2003. "Absorptive capacity and productivity spillovers From FDI: a threshold regression analysis," European Economy Group Working Papers 25, European Economy Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jaime Turrion & Carmela Martin, 2003. "Eastern Enlargement of the European Union and Foreign Direct Investment Adjustments," European Economy Group Working Papers 24, European Economy Group. [Downloadable!]
  4. Julian Ramajo & Miguel Márquez & Francisco Pedraja & Javier Salinas, 2007. "Competition in the allocation of public spending: a new model to analyse the interaction between expenditure categories," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 8(4), pages 1-7. [Downloadable!]
  5. Felicity C Barker & Robert A Buckle & Robert W St Clair, 2008. "Roles of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 08/02, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  6. David Greenaway & Neil Foster & Rod Falvey, 2002. "North-South Trade, Knowledge Spillovers and Growth," European Economy Group Working Papers 15, European Economy Group. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? To receive notification of recent additions to the database, subscribe to the free NEP reports.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-30.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.