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Longitudinal Analysis of Strike Activity

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  • David Card

Abstract

This paper presents evidence on two aspects of strike activity associated with the renegotiation of union contracts: the effects of contract characteristics on dispute probabilities; and the effects of lagged strike outcomes on the incidence and duration of subsequent disputes. The empirical results show that strike probabilities are higher following a longer contract, and lower in limited reopening situations. Strike probabilities are also higher in summer and fall than in winter and spring. Finally, strike probabilities are significantly affected by lagged strike outcomes. Relative to a peaceful settlement, strike probabilities are 10 percentage points higher following a strike of two weeks or less, and 5 to 7 percentage points lower following a longer dispute.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2263.

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Date of creation: May 1987
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Publication status: published as Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 147-176, (April 1988).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2263

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References

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  1. Chamberlain, Gary, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 225-38, January.
  2. Ashenfelter, Orley & Johnson, George E, 1969. "Bargaining Theory, Trade Unions, and Industrial Strike Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 35-49, March.
  3. Pencavel, John H, 1970. "An Investigation into Industrial Strike Activity in Britain," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 37(147), pages 239-56, August.
  4. David Card, 1987. "Longitudinal Analysis of Strike Activity," NBER Working Papers 2263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Siebert, W Stanley & Addison, John T, 1981. "Are Strikes Accidential?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 389-404, June.
  6. Martin J. Mauro, 1982. "Strikes as a result of imperfect information," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 35(4), pages 522-538, July.
  7. Vroman, Wayne, 1982. "Union Contracts and Money Wage Changes in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(4), pages 571-94, November.
  8. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  9. Gunderson, Morley & Kervin, John & Reid, Frank, 1986. "Logit Estimates of Strike Incidence from Canadian Contract Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 257-76, April.
  10. Reder, Melvin W & Neumann, George R, 1980. "Conflict and Contract: The Case of Strikes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 867-86, October.
  11. Tracy, Joseph S, 1986. "An Investigation into the Determinants of U.S. Strike Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 423-36, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Lemke, Robert J., 2004. "Dynamic bargaining with action-dependent valuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 1847-1875, July.
  2. David Card, 1987. "Longitudinal Analysis of Strike Activity," NBER Working Papers 2263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kennan, John, 1995. "Repeated contract negotiations with private information," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 447-472, November.
  4. Kyle Hyndman, 2005. "Status Quo Effects in Bargaining: An Empirical Analysis of OPEC," Industrial Organization 0511016, EconWPA.
  5. Peter Cramton & Morley Gunderson & Joseph Tracy, 1999. "The Effect Of Collective Bargaining Legislation On Strikes And Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 475-487, August.
  6. Malo, Miguel A. & Sanchez-sanchez, Nuria, 2011. "The legal form of labour conflicts and their time persistence: an empirical analysis with a large firms' panel," MPRA Paper 30117, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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