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Contractionary Devaluation, and Dynamic Adjustment of Exports and Wages

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  • Felipe Larrain
  • Jeffrey Sachs

Abstract

Recent macroeconomic models of developing countries have emphasized the possibility of contactionary devaluations, stressing that domestic aggregate demand is likely to be reduced by the devaluations while aggregate supply may respond only slowly to the change in relative prices brought about by the devaluation. These results have been obtained in static models. In this paper we add wage and export-sector dynamics to the models of contractionary devaluation, and show that the effects which produce contractionary devaluations in the short term can produce limit cycles in the long run. The economy never returns to long-run equilibrium following a devaluation, but rather moves with fixed periodicity through successive phases of boom and bust.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe Larrain & Jeffrey Sachs, 1986. "Contractionary Devaluation, and Dynamic Adjustment of Exports and Wages," NBER Working Papers 2078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2078
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    1. Ricardo Bebczuk & Arturo Galindo & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Giovanni Facchini & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings (ed.), Economic Development in Latin America, chapter 8, pages 102-117, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Spinola, Danilo, 2023. "Instability constraints and development traps: an empirical analysis of growth cycles and economic volatility in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    3. Guangjun Qu, 2017. "Do Real Depreciations Reduce the Income Gap between the Rich and the Poor?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(3), pages 266-274, March.
    4. Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia & Aliona Cebotari & Kevin Greenidge & Geoffrey N. Keim, 2015. "External Devaluations: Are Small States Different?," IMF Working Papers 2015/240, International Monetary Fund.

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