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Ending "Too Big To Fail": Government Promises vs. Investor Perceptions

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  • Todd A. Gormley
  • Simon Johnson
  • Changyong Rhee

Abstract

Can a government credibly promise not to bailout firms whose failure would have major negative systemic consequences? Our analysis of Korea's 1997-99 crisis, suggests an answer: No. Despite a general "no bailout" policy during the crisis, the largest Korean corporate groups (chaebol) - facing severe financial and governance problems - could still borrow heavily from households through issuing bonds at prices implying very low expected default risk. The evidence suggests "too big to fail" beliefs were not eliminated by government promises, presumably because investors believed that this policy was not time consistent. Subsequent government handling of potential and actual defaults by Daewoo and Hyundai confirmed the market view that creditors would be protected.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd A. Gormley & Simon Johnson & Changyong Rhee, 2011. "Ending "Too Big To Fail": Government Promises vs. Investor Perceptions," NBER Working Papers 17518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17518
    Note: CF EFG IFM POL
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Philip E. Strahan, 2013. "Too Big to Fail: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 43-61, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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