Has medical innovation reduced cancer mortality?
AbstractWe examine the effects of two important types of medical innovation—diagnostic imaging innovation and pharmaceutical innovation—and cancer incidence rates on U.S. cancer mortality rates during the period 1996-2006. The outcome measure we use is not subject to lead-time bias, and our measures of medical innovation are based on extensive data on treatments given to large numbers of patients with different types of cancer. We estimate difference-in-difference models of the age-adjusted cancer mortality rate using longitudinal, annual, cancer-site-level data on over 60 cancer sites. There is a significant inverse relationship between the cancer mortality rate and both lagged imaging innovation and contemporaneous drug innovation, and a significant positive relationship between the cancer mortality rate and the lagged incidence rate. Imaging innovation, drug innovation, and declining incidence jointly explain about three-fourths of the decline in cancer mortality. Only 7% of the mortality decline is attributable to the decline in (lagged) incidence. About one-fourth of the mortality decline is attributable to drug innovation, and 40% of the decline is attributable to (lagged) imaging innovation. Life expectancy at birth may have been increased by almost three months between 1996 and 2006 by the combined effects of cancer imaging and cancer drug innovation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15880.
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Note: HC HE PR
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- L64 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Other Machinery; Business Equipment; Armaments
- L65 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Chemicals; Rubber; Drugs; Biotechnology
- O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-HEA-2010-04-17 (Health Economics)
- NEP-INO-2010-04-17 (Innovation)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statistics
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.