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Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Duration of Risky Cash-Flows

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  • Mariano M. Croce
  • Martin Lettau
  • Sydney C. Ludvigson

Abstract

We study the role of information in asset pricing models with long-run cash flow risk. To illustrate the importance of the information structure, we show how the implications of the long-run risk paradigm for the cross-sectional properties of stock returns and cash flow duration are affected by information. When investors can fully distinguish short- and long- run consumption risk components of dividend growth innovations (full information), only exposure to long-run consumption risk generates significant risk premia, implying that high-return value stocks are long-duration assets, contrary to the historical data. By contrast, when investors observe the change in consumption and dividends each period but not the individual components of that change (limited information), exposure to short-run risk can generate large risk premia, so that high-return value stocks are short-duration assets while low-return growth stocks are long-duration assets, as in the data. We also show that, in order to explain empirical finding that long-horizon equity is less risky than short-horizon equity, the properties of the cash flow model and the values of primitive preference parameters must be quite different from those emphasized in the existing long-run risk literature.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12912.

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Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12912

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  1. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2011. "Risks for the Long Run and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 153 - 181.
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  9. Jonathan A. Parker, 2001. "The Consumption Risk of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 279-348.
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  11. Lars Peter Hansen & John C. Heaton & Nan Li, 2008. "Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 260-302, 04.
  12. Cornell, Bradford, 1999. "Risk, Duration, and Capital Budgeting: New Evidence on Some Old Questions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(2), pages 183-200, April.
  13. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica, 2005. "Why is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-based Explanation of the Value Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers 4921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Conditional Betas," NBER Working Papers 10413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Christopher J. Malloy & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2009. "Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2427-2479, December.
  17. Pietro Veronesi & Tano Santos, 2004. "Conditional Betas," 2004 Meeting Papers 24, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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Cited by:
  1. Zhiguang Wang & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2008. "A Long-Run Risks Model of Asset Pricing with Fat Tails," Working Papers 0810, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
  2. Lars Peter Hansen, 2007. "Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Economic Risk," NBER Working Papers 12948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mariano M. Croce, 2006. "Welfare Costs, Long Run Consumption Risk, and a Production Economy," 2006 Meeting Papers 582, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7127, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Chen, Huafeng (Jason), 2011. "Firm life expectancy and the heterogeneity of the book-to-market effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 402-423, May.
  6. Isaac Kleshchelski & Nicolas Vincent, 2007. "Robust Equilibrium Yield Curves," Cahiers de recherche 08-02, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
  7. Sydney Ludvigson, 2008. "The Research Agenda: Sydney Ludvigson on Empirical Evaluation of Economic Theories of Risk Premia," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), April.
  8. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2009. "Confidence Risk and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 14815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani, 2011. "Long Run Risks & Price/Dividend Ratio Factors," NBER Working Papers 17484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2011. "Variance Bounds on the Permanent and Transitory Components of Stochastic Discount Factors," Working Paper Series 2011-11, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  11. Long Chen & Lu Zhang, 2007. "Neoclassical Factors," NBER Working Papers 13282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Xavier Gabaix, 2007. "Linearity-Generating Processes: A Modelling Tool Yielding Closed Forms for Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 13430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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