Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Duration of Risky Cash-Flows
Abstract
We study the role of information in asset pricing models with long-run cash flow risk. To illustrate the importance of the information structure, we show how the implications of the long-run risk paradigm for the cross-sectional properties of stock returns and cash flow duration are affected by information. When investors can fully distinguish short- and long- run consumption risk components of dividend growth innovations (full information), only exposure to long-run consumption risk generates significant risk premia, implying that high-return value stocks are long-duration assets, contrary to the historical data. By contrast, when investors observe the change in consumption and dividends each period but not the individual components of that change (limited information), exposure to short-run risk can generate large risk premia, so that high-return value stocks are short-duration assets while low-return growth stocks are long-duration assets, as in the data. We also show that, in order to explain empirical finding that long-horizon equity is less risky than short-horizon equity, the properties of the cash flow model and the values of primitive preference parameters must be quite different from those emphasized in the existing long-run risk literature.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12912.Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12912
Note: AP
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Related research
Keywords:Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-02-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2007-02-24 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2007-02-24 (Macroeconomics)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2011.
"Risks for the Long Run and the Real Exchange Rate,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 153 - 181.
- Riccardo Colacito & Mariano Croce, 2005. "Risks For The Long Run And The Real Exchange Rate," 2005 Meeting Papers 794, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Ravi Bansal & Robert F. Dittmar & Christian T. Lundblad, 2005. "Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1639-1672, 08.
- Lu Zhang, 2005. "The Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 67-103, 02.
- Lior Menzly & Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Understanding Predictability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-47, February.
- Weil, Philippe, 1989.
"The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
- Phillippe Weil, 1997. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Risk-Free Rate Puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1833, David K. Levine.
- Philippe Weil, 1989. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Riskfree Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 2829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
- Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004.
"Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
- Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan A. Parker, 2001. "The Consumption Risk of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 279-348.
- John Y. Campbell, 2002.
"Consumption-Based Asset Pricing,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1974, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887 Elsevier.
- Lars Peter Hansen & John C. Heaton & Nan Li, 2008.
"Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 260-302, 04.
- Lars Peter Hansen & John Heaton & Nan Li, 2005. "Consumption Strikes Back?: Measuring Long-Run Risk," NBER Working Papers 11476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cornell, Bradford, 1999. "Risk, Duration, and Capital Budgeting: New Evidence on Some Old Questions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(2), pages 183-200, April.
- Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica, 2005.
"Why is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-based Explanation of the Value Premium,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, 02.
- Martin Lettau & Jessica Wachter, 2005. "Why is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-Based Explanation of the Value Premium," NBER Working Papers 11144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jessica Wachter & Martin Lettau, 2005. "Why is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-Based Explanation of the Value Premium," 2005 Meeting Papers 302, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006.
"Equilibrium Yield Curves,"
NBER Working Papers
12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 389-472 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Conditional Betas," NBER Working Papers 10413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher J. Malloy & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2009. "Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2427-2479, December.
- Pietro Veronesi & Tano Santos, 2004. "Conditional Betas," 2004 Meeting Papers 24, Society for Economic Dynamics.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Zhiguang Wang & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2008.
"A Long-Run Risks Model of Asset Pricing with Fat Tails,"
Working Papers
0810, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
- Zhiguang (Gerald) Wang & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2010. "A Long-Run Risks Model of Asset Pricing with Fat Tails," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 409-449.
- Lars Peter Hansen, 2007. "Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Economic Risk," NBER Working Papers 12948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mariano M. Croce, 2006. "Welfare Costs, Long Run Consumption Risk, and a Production Economy," 2006 Meeting Papers 582, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2009.
"Learning in Financial Markets,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7127, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
- Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 14646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chen, Huafeng (Jason), 2011. "Firm life expectancy and the heterogeneity of the book-to-market effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 402-423, May.
- Isaac Kleshchelski & Nicolas Vincent, 2007. "Robust Equilibrium Yield Curves," Cahiers de recherche 08-02, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
- Sydney Ludvigson, 2008. "The Research Agenda: Sydney Ludvigson on Empirical Evaluation of Economic Theories of Risk Premia," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), April.
- Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2009.
"Confidence Risk and Asset Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
14815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2010. "Confidence Risk and Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 537-41, May.
- Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani, 2011. "Long Run Risks & Price/Dividend Ratio Factors," NBER Working Papers 17484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2011. "Variance Bounds on the Permanent and Transitory Components of Stochastic Discount Factors," Working Paper Series 2011-11, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- Long Chen & Lu Zhang, 2007. "Neoclassical Factors," NBER Working Papers 13282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2007. "Linearity-Generating Processes: A Modelling Tool Yielding Closed Forms for Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 13430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12912For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

