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Activist Monetary Policy, Imperfect Capital Mobility, and the Overshooting Hypothesis

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David H. Papell

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Abstract

The hypothesis of exchange rate over shooting is investigated in the context of a model that incorporates activist monetary policy, variable output, imperfect capital mobility, and slow price adjustment. Monetary policy which accommodates prices and/or interest rates is shown to increase the likelihood of undershooting. Using constrained maximum likelihood methods,the model is estimated for Germany and Japan since the advent of generalized floating in 1973. Based on the estimated parameter values, the mark exhibits overshooting while the yen is characterized by undershooting. The constraints implied by the model cannot (by likelihood ratio tests) be rejected at standard significance levels for either country.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1244.

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Date of creation: Jan 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1244

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Flood, Robert P., 1981. "Explanations of exchange-rate volatility and other empirical regularities in some popular models of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 219-249, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "Exchange rate dynamics with sluggish prices under alternative price- adjustment rules," International Finance Discussion Papers 223, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. David H. Papell, 1985. "Activist Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Overshooting: The Deutsche Mark/Dollar Rate," NBER Working Papers 1195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1983. "Monetary Policy: Domestic Targets and International Constraints," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 48-53, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Robert P. Flood, 1982. "Explanations of Exchange Rate Volatility and Other Empirical Regularities in Some Popular Models of the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 0625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Taylor, John B., 1980. "Output and price stability: An international comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 109-132, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jacob A. Frenkel, 1983. "Monetary Policy: Domestic Targets and International Constraints," NBER Working Papers 1067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1991. "Re-examining the Empirical Performance of the Monetary Models of the Exchange Rate: A Problem of Structural Change," Working Papers 91-69, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Herrera Revuelta, Julio, 1997. "Expectativas racionales y política monetaria endógena en la determinación del tipo de cambio. Una ampliación empírica a la pseta-dolar y la peseta-ecu," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 7, pages 39-66, Junio. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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