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Activist Monetary Policy, Imperfect Capital Mobility, and the Overshooting Hypothesis

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  • David H. Papell

Abstract

The hypothesis of exchange rate over shooting is investigated in the context of a model that incorporates activist monetary policy, variable output, imperfect capital mobility, and slow price adjustment. Monetary policy which accommodates prices and/or interest rates is shown to increase the likelihood of undershooting. Using constrained maximum likelihood methods,the model is estimated for Germany and Japan since the advent of generalized floating in 1973. Based on the estimated parameter values, the mark exhibits overshooting while the yen is characterized by undershooting. The constraints implied by the model cannot (by likelihood ratio tests) be rejected at standard significance levels for either country.

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  • David H. Papell, 1983. "Activist Monetary Policy, Imperfect Capital Mobility, and the Overshooting Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1244
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    1. Papell, David H., 1984. "Activist monetary policy and exchange-rate overshooting: The Deutsche mark/dollar rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 293-310, December.
    2. Taylor, John B., 1980. "Output and price stability: An international comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 109-132, May.
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    5. Robert P. Flood, 1981. "Explanations of Exchange Rate Volatility and Other Empirical Regularities in Some Popular Models of the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 0625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1983. "Monetary Policy: Domestic Targets and International Constraints," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 48-53, May.
    7. Flood, Robert P., 1981. "Explanations of exchange-rate volatility and other empirical regularities in some popular models of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 219-249, January.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Sluggish Prices under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 159-174, February.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    10. Jacob A. Frenkel, 1983. "Monetary Policy: Domestic Targets and International Constraints," NBER Working Papers 1067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    12. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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    1. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Bach Phan, Dinh Hoang & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2019. "Exchange rate effects of US government shutdowns: Evidence from both developed and emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Siroos Khademalomoom & Dinh Hoang Bach Phan, 2018. "Do Terrorist Attacks Impact Exchange Rate Behavior? New International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 547-561, January.
    3. Goldberg, Michael D., 1995. "Symmetry restrictions and the semblance of neutrality in exchange rate models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 579-599.
    4. Herrera Revuelta, Julio, 1997. "Expectativas racionales y política monetaria endógena en la determinación del tipo de cambio. Una ampliación empírica a la pseta-dolar y la peseta-ecu," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 7, pages 39-66, Junio.
    5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Seema, 2021. "How much does economic news influence bilateral exchange rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Papell, David H., 1984. "Activist monetary policy and exchange-rate overshooting: The Deutsche mark/dollar rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 293-310, December.
    7. Goldberg, Michael D., 2000. "On empirical exchange rate models: what does a rejection of the symmetry restriction on short-run interest rates mean?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 673-688, October.
    8. Gonyung Park & Young-yong Kim, 2003. "An empirical analysis of nominal rigidities and exchange rate overshooting: an intertemporal approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 153-166.

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