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An Economist Sells Bagels: A Case Study in Profit Maximization

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  • Steven D. Levitt

Abstract

Profit maximizing behavior on the part of firms is a fundamental, but rarely tested, assumption of economics. In this paper, I analyze the decisions made by an MIT trained economist running a company that delivers bagels and donuts. The simplicity and transparency of the business (e.g. marginal cost is easily observed) allow for direct tests of profit maximization in the quantities delivered each day and the prices that are charged. Using thirteen years of data representing more than 80,000 deliveries, I find that the company is extremely adept at determining how many bagels and donuts to deliver to a particular customer on a given day. In stark contrast, the company appears to price on the inelastic portion of the demand curve for the entire period, thereby foregoing a substantial share of available profits. I argue that these results generalize well beyond this particular case study: firms are likely to be close to the efficient frontier on dimensions for which there is frequent and informative feedback regarding profits, but absent that feedback, systematic deviations from profit maximization are more likely.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven D. Levitt, 2006. "An Economist Sells Bagels: A Case Study in Profit Maximization," NBER Working Papers 12152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12152
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    Cited by:

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    2. Levin, Andrew T. & David López-Salido, J. & Nelson, Edward & Yun, Tack, 2008. "Macroeconometric equivalence, microeconomic dissonance, and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 48-62, October.
    3. Jeroen Hinloopen & Adriaan R. Soetevent, 2020. "(Non‐)Insurance Markets, Loss Size Manipulation and Competition: Experimental Evidence," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 819-856, December.
    4. Steffen Huck & Imran Rasul & Andrew Shephard, 2015. "Comparing Charitable Fundraising Schemes: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment and a Structural Model," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 326-369, May.
    5. Adams, Christopher P., 2007. "Estimating demand from eBay prices," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1213-1232, December.
    6. Huck, Steffen & Rasul, Imran & Shephard, Andrew, 2012. "Comparing charitable fundraising schemes: Evidence from a field experiment and a structural model," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2012-303, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    7. Bandiera, Oriana & Larcinese, Valentino & Rasul, Imran, 2015. "Blissful ignorance? A natural experiment on the effect of feedback on students' performance," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 13-25.
    8. Maija Gao & Ari Hyytinen & Otto Toivanen, 2014. "Problems in Launching the Mobile Internet: Evidence From a Pricing Experiment," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506, September.
    9. Kenneth Kovash & Steven D. Levitt, 2009. "Professionals Do Not Play Minimax: Evidence from Major League Baseball and the National Football League," NBER Working Papers 15347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Huck, Steffen & Rasul, Imran, 2011. "Matched fundraising: Evidence from a natural field experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(5-6), pages 351-362, June.
    11. Mohajan, Devagit & Mohajan, Haradhan, 2022. "Profit Maximization Strategy in an Industry: A Sustainable Procedure," MPRA Paper 114675, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Jun 2022.
    12. repec:pri:cepsud:226shephard is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Asplund, Björn Marcus, 2007. "A Test of Profit Maximization," CEPR Discussion Papers 6177, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Achim Schlüter & Insa Theesfeld, 2010. "The grammar of institutions: The challenge of distinguishing between strategies, norms, and rules," Rationality and Society, , vol. 22(4), pages 445-475, November.
    15. Ran Abramitzky & Liran Einav & Shimon Kolkowitz & Roy Mill, 2012. "On The Optimality Of Line Call Challenges In Professional Tennis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 939-964, August.
    16. Mohajan, Devajit & Mohajan, Haradhan, 2023. "A Study on Nonlinear Budget Constraint of a Local Industrial Firm of Bangladesh: A Profit Maximization Investigation," MPRA Paper 117324, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Mar 2023.
    17. Mohajan, Devajit & Mohajan, Haradhan, 2023. "Sensitivity Analysis for Profit Maximization with Respect to Per Unit Cost of Subsidiary Raw Materials," MPRA Paper 116538, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jan 2023.
    18. Mohajan, Devajit & Mohajan, Haradhan, 2023. "Sensitivity Analysis of Inputs of an Organization: A Profit Maximization Exploration," MPRA Paper 117121, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Mar 2023.
    19. Imke Reimers & Joel Waldfogel, 2017. "Throwing the Books at Them: Amazon's Puzzling Long Run Pricing Strategy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(4), pages 869-885, April.
    20. Soetevent, Adriaan & Hinloopen, Jeroen, 2016. "(Non-)Insurance Markets, Loss Size Manipulation and Competition," Research Report 16009-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    21. Francine Lafontaine & Jagadeesh Sivadasan, 2009. "Within-firm Labor Productivity across Countries: A Case Study," NBER Chapters, in: International Differences in the Business Practices and Productivity of Firms, pages 137-172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • L2 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior

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