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A Portfolio View of Consumer Credit

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Author Info
David K. Musto
Nicholas S. Souleles

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Abstract

To compute risk-adjusted returns and gauge the volatility of their portfolios, lenders need to know the covariances of their loans' returns with aggregate returns. Cross-sectional differences in these covariances also provide insight into the nature of the shocks hitting different types of consumers. We use a unique panel dataset of credit bureau records to measure the 'covariance risk' of individual consumers, i.e., the covariance of their default risk with aggregate consumer default rates, and more generally to analyze the cross-sectional distribution of credit, including the effects of credit scores. We obtain two key sets of results. First, there is significant systematic heterogeneity in covariance risk across consumers with different characteristics. Consumers with high covariance risk tend to also have low credit scores (high default probabilities). Second, the amount of credit obtained by consumers significantly increases with their credit scores, and significantly decreases with their covariance risk (especially revolving credit), though the effect of covariance risk is smaller in magnitude.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11735.

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Date of creation: Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11735

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David K. Musto, 2004. "What Happens When Information Leaves a Market? Evidence from Postbankruptcy Consumers," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 725-748, October. [Downloadable!]
  2. Souphala Chomsisengphet & Ronel Elul, 2005. "Bankruptcy exemptions, credit history, and the mortgage market," Working Papers 04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Samuel Hanson & M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann, 2005. "Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Anthony Pennington-Cross & Joseph Nichols, . "Credit History and the FHA-Conventional Choice," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 319, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
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  5. Barakova, Irina & Bostic, Raphael W. & Calem, Paul S. & Wachter, Susan M., 2003. "Does credit quality matter for homeownership?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 318-336, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
  7. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2002. "Do Liquidity Constraints And Interest Rates Matter For Consumer Behavior? Evidence From Credit Card Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(1), pages 149-185, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. David B. Gross, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 319-347, March.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gary Gorton & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Special purpose vehicles and securitization," Working Papers 05-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Do Consumers Choose the Right Credit Contracts?," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/32, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Sumit Agarwal & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2007. "The reaction of consumer spending and debt to tax rebates – evidence from consumer credit data," Working Paper Series WP-07-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul S. Willen, 2009. "Making sense of the subprime crisis," Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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