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Measuring the Covariance Risk of Consumer Debt Portfolios

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  • Carlos Madeira

    (Central Bank of Chile)

Abstract

The covariance risk of consumer loans is difficult to measure due to high heterogeneity. Using the Chilean Household Finance Survey I simulate the default conditions of heterogeneous households over distinct macro scenarios. I show that consumer loans have a high covariance beta relative to the stock market and bank assets. Banks' loan portfolios have very different covariance betas, with some banks being prone to high risk during recessions. High income and older households have lower betas and help diversify banks' portfolios. Households' covariance risk increases the probability of being rejected for credit and has a negative impact on loan amounts.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Madeira, 2019. "Measuring the Covariance Risk of Consumer Debt Portfolios," 2019 Meeting Papers 240, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:240
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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandra Inzunza & Carlos Madeira, 2023. "The impact of the Covid Pension Fund Withdrawals in Chile on the future retirement income of the Social Security affiliates and their households," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 991, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Carlos Madeira, 2022. "The double impact of deep social unrest and a pandemic: Evidence from Chile," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 135-171, February.
    3. Madeira, Carlos, 2020. "Learning your own ability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Carlos Madeira, 2020. "The impact of information laws on consumer credit access: evidence from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 873, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Madeira, Carlos, 2019. "The impact of interest rate ceilings on households’ credit access: Evidence from a 2013 Chilean legislation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 166-179.
    6. Siyi Wang & Xing Yan & Bangqi Zheng & Hu Wang & Wangli Xu & Nanbo Peng & Qi Wu, 2021. "Risk and return prediction for pricing portfolios of non-performing consumer credit," Papers 2110.15102, arXiv.org.
    7. Madeira, Carlos, 2023. "The evolution of consumption inequality and risk-insurance in Chile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Madeira, Carlos, 2022. "The impact of the Chilean pension withdrawals during the Covid pandemic on the future savings rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Madeira, Carlos, 2021. "The potential impact of financial portability measures on mortgage refinancing: Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    10. Carlos Madeira, 2018. "Priorización de pago de deudas de consumo en Chile: el caso de bancos y casas comerciales," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(1), pages 118-132, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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