Welfare Reform, Returns to Experience, and Wages: Using Reservation Wages to Account for Sample Selection Bias
AbstractWork was one of the central motivations for welfare reform during the 1990s. One important rationale for work was based on human capital theory: work today should raise experience tomorrow, which in turn should raise future wage offers and reduce dependency on aid. Despite the importance of the this notion, few studies have estimated the effect of welfare reform on wages. Furthermore, several recent analyses suggest that low-skill workers, such as welfare recipients, enjoy only meager returns to experience, undermining the link between welfare reform and wages. An important analytical obstacle is the sample selection problem. Since non-employment levels are high and workers are unlikely to represent a random sample from the population of former recipients, estimates that fail to account for sample selection could be seriously biased. In this paper, I propose a method to solve the selection problem based on the use of reservation wage data. Reservation wage data allow one to solve the problem using censored regression methods. Furthermore, the use of reservation wage data obviates the need for the controversial exclusion restrictions sometimes used to identify familiar two-step sample selection estimators. Correcting for sample selection bias matters a great deal empirically. Estimates from models that lack such corrections suggest that welfare recipients gain little from work experience. Estimates based on the reservation wage approach suggest that they enjoy returns similar to those estimated from other samples of workers. They also suggest that the particular reform program that I analyze may have raised wages modestly.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11621.
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Note: LS PE
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Jeffrey Grogger, 2009. "Welfare Reform, Returns to Experience, and Wages: Using Reservation Wages to Account for Sample Selection Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 490-502, August.
- I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty
- J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hurd, M., 1999.
"Anchoring and Acquiescence Bias in Measuring Assets in Households Surveys,"
99-02, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
- Hurd, Michael D, 1999. "Anchoring and Acquiescence Bias in Measuring Assets in Household Surveys," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 111-36, December.
- Michael D. Hurd, 1999. "Anchoring and Acquiescence Bias in Measuring Assets in Households Surveys," Working Papers 99-02, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
- Light, Audrey & Ureta, Manuelita, 1995. "Early-Career Work Experience and Gender Wage Differentials," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 121-54, January.
- David Card & Charles Michalopoulos & Philip K. Robins, 2001. "The Limits to Wage Growth: Measuring the Growth Rate of Wages For Recent Welfare Leavers," NBER Working Papers 8444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Card & Dean R. Hyslop, 2004.
"Estimating the Effects of a Time Limited Earnings Subsidy for Welfare Leavers,"
NBER Working Papers
10647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Card & Dean R. Hyslop, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of a Time-Limited Earnings Subsidy for Welfare-Leavers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1723-1770, November.
- Newey, Whitney K., 1987. "Efficient estimation of limited dependent variable models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 231-250, November.
- James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jill Marie Gunderson & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2006. "Welfare recipiency, job separation outcomes, and postseparation earnings: insight from linked personnel and state administrative data," Working Paper 2006-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Bart Cockx & Stéphane Robin & Christian Goebel, 2006.
"Income Support Policies for Part-Time Workers: A Stepping-Stone to Regular Jobs? An Application to Young Long-Term Unemployed Women in Belgium,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1863, CESifo Group Munich.
- Bart, COCKX & Stéphane, ROBIN & Christian, GOEBEL, 2006. "Income support policies for part-time workers : a stepping-stone to regular jobs ? An application to young long-terme unemployed women in Belgium," Discussion Papers (ECON - DÃ©partement des Sciences Economiques) 2006050, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- Cockx, Bart & Robin, Stéphane R. & Goebel, Christian, 2006. "Income Support Policies for Part-Time Workers: A Stepping-Stone to Regular Jobs? An Application to Young Long-Term Unemployed Women in Belgium," IZA Discussion Papers 2432, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- B. Cockx & C. Goebel & S. Robin, 2009. "Is income support for part-time workers a steppingstone to regular jobs? An application to young long-term unemployed women," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/561, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Greenberg, David H. & Robins, Philip K., 2008.
"Incorporating nonmarket time into benefit-cost analyses of social programs: An application to the self-sufficiency project,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 766-794, April.
- Phillip K. Robins & David H. Greenberg, 2006. "Incorporating Nonmarket Time Into Benefit-Cost Analyses of Social Programs: An Application to the Self-Sufficiency Project," Working Papers 0714, University of Miami, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2007.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.