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News About News: Information Arrival and Irreversible Investment

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  • Allan Drazen
  • Plutarchos Sakellaris

Abstract

We analyze how uncertainty about when information about future returns to a project may be revealed affects investment. While 'good news' about future returns boosts investment, 'good news about news' (that is news that information may arrive sooner) is shown to depress investment. We show that early revelation increases the value of an irreversible investment project to a risk-neutral investor. We relate our results on preference for early revelation to results in non-expected utility theory. Our framework allows us to study irreversible investment projects whose value has a time-variable volatility. We also consider how heterogeneity of revelation information across firms may induce a better-informed firm to share its information with competitors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0244.

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Date of creation: Aug 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0244

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  1. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-75, June.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke, 1980. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," NBER Working Papers 0502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Allan Drazen & Elhanan Helpman, 1991. "Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 2006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Bertola, Guiseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 223-46, April.
  5. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
  6. David M Kreps & Evan L Porteus, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Levine's Working Paper Archive 625018000000000009, David K. Levine.
  7. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-86, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Yishay D. Maoz, 2005. "More on Bernanke's “Bad News Principle”," General Economics and Teaching 0510002, EconWPA.

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