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Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D

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Author Info
Nick Bloom

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Abstract

Uncertainty varies strongly over time, rising by 50% to 100% in recessions and by up to200% after major economic and political shocks. This paper shows that higher uncertaintyreduces the responsiveness of R&D to changes in business conditions - a "caution-effect" -making it more persistent over time. Thus, uncertainty will play a critical role in shaping thedynamics of R&D through the business cycle, and its response to technology policy. I alsoshow that if firms are increasing their level of R&D then the effect of uncertainty will benegative, while if firms are reducing R&D then the effect of uncertainty will be positive.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0792.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0792

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Related research
Keywords: R&D; uncertainty; real options;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
O3 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Gadi Barlevy, 2007. "On the Cyclicality of Research and Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1131-1164, September. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bertola, Guiseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(2), pages 223-46, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," NBER Working Papers 5091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2006. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 73(3), pages 611-633, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2003. "Patents and R&D as Real Options," NBER Working Papers 10114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Nick Bloom, 2006. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks: Firm Level Estimation and a 9/11 Simulation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0718, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  11. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Franck Paolucci, 2007. "Des contraintes aux contributions des investissements en R&D aux Etats-Unis," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-16, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  2. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Askenazy & Nicolas Berman & Gilbert Cette & Laurent Eymard, 2008. "Credit constraints and the cyclicality of R&D investment: Evidence from France," PSE Working Papers 2008-26, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
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