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Randomization and Social Policy Evaluation

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Author Info
James J. Heckman

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Abstract

This paper considers the recent case for randomized social experimentation and contrasts it with older cases for social experimentation. The recent case eschews behavioral models, assumes that certain mean differences in outcomes are the parameters of interest to evaluators and assumes that randomization does not disrupt the social program being analyzed. Conditions under which program disruption effects are of no consequence are presented. Even in the absence of randomization bias, ideal experimental data cannot estimate median (other quantile) differences between treated and untreated persons without invoking supplementary statistical assumptions. The recent case for randomized experimentation does not address the choice of the appropriate stage in a multistage program at which randomization should be conducted. Evidence on randomization bias is presented.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0107.

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Date of creation: Jul 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0107

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Manski, C.F., 1990. "The Selection Problem," Working papers 90-12, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Heckman, James J. & Robb, Richard Jr., 1985. "Alternative methods for evaluating the impact of interventions : An overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 239-267. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Conlisk, John, 1973. "Choice of Response Functional Form in Designing Subsidy Experiments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 643-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Richard J. Arnott & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1988. "Randomization with Asymmetric Information," NBER Working Papers 2507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-59, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Heckman, James J & Honore, Bo E, 1990. "The Empirical Content of the Roy Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1121-49, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. James J. Heckman, 1989. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods for Estimating the Impact of Social Programs: The Case of Manpower Training," NBER Working Papers 2861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ashenfelter, Orley & Card, David, 1985. "Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 648-60, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John V. Pepper, 1999. "What Do Welfare-to-Work Demonstrations Reveal to Welfare Reformers?," Virginia Economics Online Papers 317, University of Virginia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 2003. "Does Matching Overcome Lalonde's Critique of Nonexperimental Estimators?," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Human Capital and Productivity Project Working Papers 20035, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Human Capital and Productivity Project. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman, 2006. "A New Framework for the Analysis of Inequality," NBER Working Papers 12505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. James Heckman & Jeffrey Smith & Christopher Taber, 1994. "Accounting for Dropouts in Evaluations of Social Experiments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Orley Ashenfelter & David Ashmore & Olivier Deschenes, 1999. "Do Unemployment Insurance Recipients Actively Seek Work? Randomized Trials in Four U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 6982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Peter Dolton; & Donal O'Neill, 1997. "The Long-Run Effects of Unemployment Monitoring and Work-Search Programs: Some Experimental Evidence from the U.K," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n710897, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  7. V. Joseph Hotz & Susan Williams McElroy & Seth G. Sanders, 1999. "Teenage Childbearing and Its Life Cycle Consequences: Exploiting a Natural Experiment," JCPR Working Papers 157, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  8. Gerald Marschke & Pascal Courty, 2004. "A General Test of Gaming," Discussion Papers 04-04, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. James Heckman & Carolyn Heinrich & Jeffrey Smith, 2002. "The Performance of Performance Standards," NBER Working Papers 9002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Michael A. Boozer & Stephen E. Cacciola, 2001. "Inside the 'Black Box' of Project STAR: Estimation of Peer Effects Using Experimental Data," Working Papers 832, Economic Growth Center, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  11. V. Joseph Hotz & Seth G. Sanders & Susan Williams McElroy, 1999. "Teenage Childbearing and Its Life Cycle Consequences: Exploiting a Natural Experiment," NBER Working Papers 7397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cockx, Bart & Ridder, Geert, 1996. "Social employment of welfare recipients in Belgium: an evaluation," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1996018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Melanie Arntz & Jochen Michaelis & Alexander Spermann, 2006. "Reforming Long-term Care in Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Special Issues, Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(S (specia), pages 37-42. [Downloadable!]
  14. Bart Cockx & Isabelle Bardoulat, 2000. "Vocational Training: Does it speed up the Transition Rate out of Unemployment?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-016/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. C. F. Manski, . "Learning about social programs from experiments with random assignment of treatments," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1061-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty. [Downloadable!]
  16. Markus Gangl & Thomas A. DiPrete, 2004. "Kausalanalyse durch Matchingverfahren," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 401, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  17. Kluve, Jochen, 2001. "On the Role of Counterfactuals in Inferring Causal Effects of Treatments," IZA Discussion Papers 354, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  18. Jochen Michaelis & Melanie Arntz & Alexander Spermann, 2005. "Die Reform der Pflegeversicherung - weniger Kostendruck durch flexiblere Pflegearrangements?," Discussion Papers in Economics 71/05, University of Kassel, Institute of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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