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Modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market – interactions between the primary and the secondary market and multiplier effects

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Abstract

While analysing the housing market, we focus on the short-term modelling of the housing units market instead of analysing the long-term housing space market. In this context, even a minor change in factors affecting the real estate market leads, due to the multiplier effect, to strong shocks on the demand side, and, consequently, to an excessive reaction of the supply side. These shocks, depending on the price elasticity of supply and demand, may disappear or explode. This articles presents the modelling of cycles in the residential real estate market. We focus on price changes and the number of housing units in the primary and secondary market. We find that in order to smooth the housing cycle, the housing demand needs to be smoothed. This can be achieved with the use of fiscal policy, prudential regulations and housing policy.

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File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/143_en.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 143.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:143

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Keywords: Housing market cycles; disequilibrium; banking sector; regulation;

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  1. William C. Wheaton, 1999. "Real Estate "Cycles": Some Fundamentals," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 209-230.
  2. repec:nsr:niesrd:15 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Waldron, Matt & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2010. "Household debt, house prices and consumption in the United Kingdom: a quantitative theoretical analysis," Bank of England working papers 379, Bank of England.
  4. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
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