A new approach to probabilistic surveys of professional forecasters and its application in the monetary policy context
AbstractIn this paper we present the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters introduced in 2011 by the National Bank of Poland. It is a new survey that allows analysis of macroeconomic forecasts of professional economists, including their probabilistic forecasts of CPI inflation, GDP growth and the NBP reference rate. In the paper we discuss in detail survey methodology, whose some elements are novel. It refers especially to the construction of probabilistic survey questions. Instead of declaring probabilities that in a certain horizon a given variable will be in pre-defined intervals, NBP SPF experts declare median and the limits of a 90-percent probability range between the 5th and 95th percentile of their subjective probability distributions. To present the benefits from the applied design of the NBP SPF, we describe the first results obtained from the NBP SPF.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 142.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-03-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2013-03-02 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2013-03-02 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006.
"Modeling Multi-Period Inflation Uncertainty Using a Panel of Density Forcasts,"
06-05, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
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- Lyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz, Joanna & Stanislawska, Ewa, 2007. "Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998-2004," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-87, March.
- Steffen Henzel & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Role of Expectations: Evidence from the Ifo World Economic Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 1694, CESifo Group Munich.
- Rolf Scheufele, 2011. "Are Qualitative Inflation Expectations Useful to Predict Inflation?," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2011(1), pages 29-53.
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