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A note on central bank transparency and credibility in Poland

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Abstract

This note extends the study by Lyziak et al. (2007), providing up-to-date assessment of central bank transparency in Poland. We highlight the role of inflation projections prepared by the staff of the National Bank of Poland in building transparency of monetary policy. The results suggest that central bank inflation projections, published since 2004, have led to improvements in the predictability of interest rate decisions. The note updates also previous estimates of the degree of central bank credibility in Poland, using survey-based measures of inflation expectations formed by consumers, enterprises and financial sector analysts. It is confirmed that inflation expectations of enterprises and – especially – of financial sector analysts display a high degree of anchoring at the NBP inflation target, while consumer inflation expectations are driven mainly by developments in subjectively perceived inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 162.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:162

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Keywords: Transparency; Credibility; Expectations; Inflation Targeting; Poland.;

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  1. Jon Faust & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Transparency and credibility: monetary policy with unobservable goals," International Finance Discussion Papers 605, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Tomasz Łyziak & Oksana Demchuk & Jan Przystupa & Anna Sznajderska & Ewa Wróbel, 2012. "Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland. What do we know in 2011?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 116, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  3. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2001. "Does it pay to be transparent? International evidence from central bank forecasts," Bank of England working papers 143, Bank of England.
  4. Ehrmann, Michael & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2010. "The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts," Working Paper Series 1146, European Central Bank.
  5. Armand Fouejieu A., 2013. "Coping with the recent financial crisis: Did inflation targeting make any difference?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 133, pages 72-92.
  6. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Geraats, P.M., 2004. "How Transparent Are Central Banks?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0411, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Lyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz, Joanna & Stanislawska, Ewa, 2007. "Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998-2004," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-87, March.
  8. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?," NBER Working Papers 7161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Geraats, Petra M., 2001. "Why adopt transparency? The publication of central bank forecasts," Working Paper Series 0041, European Central Bank.
  10. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Real Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 9486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Halina Kowalczyk & Tomasz Lyziak & Ewa Stanisławska, 2013. "A new approach to probabilistic surveys of professional forecasters and its application in the monetary policy context," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 142, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  12. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Stefan Krause, 2002. "Central bank structure, policy efficiency, and macroeconomic performance: exploring empirical relationships," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 47-60.
  13. Marek Belka & Jens Thomsen & Kim Abildgren & Pietro Catte & Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Ignazio Visco & Petar Chobanov & Amine Lahiani & Nikolay Nenovsky & Cristina Badarau & Grégory Levieuge & T, 2011. "Monetary Policy after the Crisis," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2011/3 edited by Ernest Gnan, & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Łyziak & Robert McCauley.
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