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A note on central bank transparency and credibility in Poland

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Abstract

This note extends the study by Lyziak et al. (2007), providing up-to-date assessment of central bank transparency in Poland. We highlight the role of inflation projections prepared by the staff of the National Bank of Poland in building transparency of monetary policy. The results suggest that central bank inflation projections, published since 2004, have led to improvements in the predictability of interest rate decisions. The note updates also previous estimates of the degree of central bank credibility in Poland, using survey-based measures of inflation expectations formed by consumers, enterprises and financial sector analysts. It is confirmed that inflation expectations of enterprises and – especially – of financial sector analysts display a high degree of anchoring at the NBP inflation target, while consumer inflation expectations are driven mainly by developments in subjectively perceived inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 162.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:162

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Keywords: Transparency; Credibility; Expectations; Inflation Targeting; Poland.;

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  1. Geraats, Petra M., 2000. "Why Adopt Transparency? The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0hw7h7cp, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Lars E.O Svensson, 2002. "Monetary policy and real stabilization," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 261-312.
  3. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Stefan Krause, 2002. "Central bank structure, policy efficiency, and macroeconomic performance: exploring empirical relationships," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 47-60.
  4. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?," NBER Working Papers 7161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ehrmann, M. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Fratzcher, M., 2010. "The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3763052, Tilburg University.
  6. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 99-118.
  7. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Geraats, Petra M, 2002. "How Transparent are Central Banks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 2001. "Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(2), pages 369-97, May.
  9. Lyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz, Joanna & Stanislawska, Ewa, 2007. "Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998-2004," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-87, March.
  10. Tomasz Łyziak & Oksana Demchuk & Jan Przystupa & Anna Sznajderska & Ewa Wróbel, 2012. "Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland. What do we know in 2011?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 116, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  11. Marek Belka & Jens Thomsen & Kim Abildgren & Pietro Catte & Pietro Cova & Patrizio Pagano & Ignazio Visco & Petar Chobanov & Amine Lahiani & Nikolay Nenovsky & Cristina Badarau & Grégory Levieuge & T, 2011. "Monetary Policy after the Crisis," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2011/3 edited by Ernest Gnan, & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Tomasz Łyziak & Robert McCauley.
  12. Armand Fouejieu A., 2013. "Coping with the recent financial crisis: Did inflation targeting make any difference?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 133, pages 72-92.
  13. Halina Kowalczyk & Tomasz Lyziak & Ewa Stanisławska, 2013. "A new approach to probabilistic surveys of professional forecasters and its application in the monetary policy context," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 142, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
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