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Jobs Gained and Lost through Trade - The Case of Germany

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  • Maren Lurweg
  • Andreas Westermeier
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    Abstract

    The nature of international trade has changed significantly. For centuries, trade concentrated on the exchange of finished goods. It now increasingly involves bits of value that are added at different locations to combine into one final product. Therefore, trade in functions or tasks are of growing importance and exports of final goods are no longer an appropriate indicator of the international competitiveness of countries. The process of globalisation has an impact on domestic labour markets. Due to the increasing integration of the world economy, some jobs are gained and others lost in any open economy. Concerns about German workers losing jobs to foreign competition dominate many political debates. Many people fear that being integrated in the world economy is disadvantageous for Germany. In this paper, we use input-output analysis to explore the relationship between trade and both job creation and job destruction in Germany over the period 1995-2006. We present two main findings. First, in an autarkic situation, around 7.0 per cent of total German jobs would not have existed at all in 2006. The job effect of trade was positive in every reporting year. Second, the manufacturing sector contributed most to this positive job effect, but also in the service sector, many jobs were retained through trade.

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    Paper provided by Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary in its series Working Papers with number 200114.

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    Handle: RePEc:muc:wpaper:200114

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    Keywords: input-output analysis; international trade; employment;

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    1. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2008. "Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1978-97, December.
    2. Danièle Meulders & Robert Plasman & François Rycx, 2004. "Minimum wages, low pay and unemployment," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7740, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Mary Amiti & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Fear of service outsourcing: is it justified?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 308-347, 04.
    4. Kowalewski, Julia, 2009. "Methodology of the input-output analysis," HWWI Research Papers 1-25, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    5. Choi, E. Kwan & Harrigan, James, 2003. "Handbook of International Trade," Staff General Research Papers 11375, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Martin Falk & Yvonne Wolfmayr, 2005. "Employment Effects of Outsourcing to Low Wage Countries. Empirical Evidence for EU Countries," WIFO Working Papers 262, WIFO.
    7. Marin, Dalia, 2004. "'A Nation of Poets and Thinkers' - Less So with Eastern Enlargement? Austria and Germany," Discussion Papers in Economics 329, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    8. Alexander Hijzen & Holger Görg & Robert C. Hine, 2005. "International Outsourcing and the Skill Structure of Labour Demand in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 860-878, October.
    9. Danièle Meulders & François Rycx & Robert Plasman, 2004. "Minimum Wages, low pay and unemployment: introduction," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7704, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Koen De Backer & Norihiko Yamano, 2007. "The Measurement of Globalisation using International Input-Output Tables," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2007/8, OECD Publishing.
    11. Miller,Ronald E. & Blair,Peter D., 2009. "Input-Output Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521739023, April.
    12. Margit Molnár & Nigel Pain & Daria Taglioni, 2007. "The Internationalisation of Production, International Outsourcing and Employment in the OECD," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 561, OECD Publishing.
    13. Mary Amiti & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Service offshoring, Productivity, and Employment," IMF Working Papers 05/238, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Erica L. Groshen & Bart Hobijn & Margaret M. McConnell, 2005. "U.S. jobs gained and lost through trade: a net measure," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Aug).
    15. Robert E. Baldwin, 1995. "The Effects of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment on Employment and Relative Wages," NBER Working Papers 5037, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Jagdish Bhagwati & Arvind Panagariya, 2004. "The Muddles over Outsourcing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 93-114, Fall.
    17. Paul A. Samuelson, 2004. "Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream Economists Supporting Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 135-146, Summer.
    18. Falk, Martin & Wolfmayr, Yvonne, 2008. "Services and materials outsourcing to low-wage countries and employment: Empirical evidence from EU countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 38-52, March.
    19. Miller,Ronald E. & Blair,Peter D., 2009. "Input-Output Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521517133, April.
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